Jump to content



Photo

Gold Overpriced or Gold Stocks Undervalued?


  • Please log in to reply
8 replies to this topic

#1 Woody

Woody

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 10 February 2008 - 11:30 AM

imho either Gold falls or the Stocks play catchup.

My take is that Gold will correct to $750-$775 (as indicated in prior posts) and the Gold Stocks will start outperforming the metal staging the next (and final) blowoff leg up that will finally kick start the Juniors.

The USD is due for a Bear Market Rally.........all of this will help align sentiment for Gold stocks next leg.

The Juniors will lag until there is a perception that Gold is going parabolic and the focus will quickly shift from concerns over increasing mining and exploration costs to jubilation over limitless revenue.

In the short run, I was expecting a breakdown last week that didnt occur and hats off to Senor for picking up some Tequila money.

I'll try and post a few charts below on why I think Gold will now "Pop and Drop"

In a nutshell, Gold Indexes and stocks have made a higher low in an apparent triangle formation.
In most cases the higher low has been divergent with Breadth, RSI, MACD and Slow Stochastics, a new High in the Metal will coincide with a test of the upper boundry of the Triangle for Stocks which should be a good short.

Obviously, a spike up in Gold with an even higher spike up in stocks out of this triangle and my short term view will be wrong or delayed.......


Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

#2 Tor

Tor

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,647 posts

Posted 10 February 2008 - 12:37 PM

definetely looks closer to the top than the bottom! IMO
Observer

The future is 90% present and 10% vision.

#3 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,991 posts

Posted 10 February 2008 - 12:48 PM

The $GOLD:$XAU ratio did surpass 5 this week and turned down a bit Friday.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD:$XAU&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p29802144389&a=30245744&r=7038.png

#4 Kimston

Kimston

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 604 posts

Posted 10 February 2008 - 01:03 PM

RD,
Why not wait for the next run to 6 or higher, which may come with next 8 yr cycle low in gold (due in 2009)?

Kimston

The $GOLD:$XAU ratio did surpass 5 this week and turned down a bit Friday.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD:$XAU&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p29802144389&a=30245744&r=7038.png



#5 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,991 posts

Posted 10 February 2008 - 01:41 PM

RD,
Why not wait for the next run to 6 or higher, which may come with next 8 yr cycle low in gold (due in 2009)?

Kimston


OK. If you will guarantee it will happen. :D

It's interesting that the $GOLD:$XAU ratio topped in late 2000 but the gold rally did not begin for 3 months.

Here's an interesting Chart from Jack Chan:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XAU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p74961189792&a=61529491&r=317.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI:$GOLD&p=W&st=2000-01-01&i=p01360775736&a=58115156&r=209.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 10 February 2008 - 01:50 PM.


#6 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,991 posts

Posted 10 February 2008 - 02:29 PM

AmericanBulls.com candlesticks gave a BUY confirmation on GLD Friday and a Buy-If on GDX:

STREETTRACKS GOLD TR GLD
Daily Commentary
Our system posted a BUY CONFIRMED today. The previous SELL recommendation was issued on 02.05.2008 (3) days ago, when the stock price was 87.9000. Since then GLD has gained 3.53% .
(However their 2 year track record is not awe inspiring as $100 has become $145.)

MARKET VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF GDX
Daily Commentary
Our system posted a BUY-IF today. The previous SELL recommendation was issued on 02.01.2008 (7) days ago, when the stock price was 50.3500. Since then GDX has fallen -3.59% .
(Their signals on GDX for 17 months is $100 became $184.)




On the other hand,
Pitbull went to cash in their GLD on 2/6/2008.
Posted Image

Edited by Rogerdodger, 10 February 2008 - 02:40 PM.


#7 Kimston

Kimston

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 604 posts

Posted 10 February 2008 - 07:00 PM

I'll guarantee that it might happen, and there is a very good chance that it will happen.



RD,
Why not wait for the next run to 6 or higher, which may come with next 8 yr cycle low in gold (due in 2009)?

Kimston


OK. If you will guarantee it will happen. :D

It's interesting that the $GOLD:$XAU ratio topped in late 2000 but the gold rally did not begin for 3 months.

Here's an interesting Chart from Jack Chan:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XAU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p74961189792&a=61529491&r=317.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI:$GOLD&p=W&st=2000-01-01&i=p01360775736&a=58115156&r=209.png



#8 dharma

dharma

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,912 posts

Posted 11 February 2008 - 01:28 AM

sure, it can happen but will level will gold get to! there is a good chance that 650 is not seen again for quite some time. and my guess is the upper 700s will be all we see. but this is pure speculation. dharma

#9 lhslancers3270

lhslancers3270

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 61 posts

Posted 11 February 2008 - 05:25 PM

sure, it can happen but will level will gold get to! there is a good chance that 650 is not seen again for quite some time. and my guess is the upper 700s will be all we see. but this is pure speculation.
dharma


Funny thing is you have a market at all time highs that just went back and retested the old highs of $850 successfully. Yet I hear every cycle analyst looking for a top this week or next. The least predicted outcome from here is straight up.