Platinum, How far will it go? Options

[Kimston]

Blow-offs normally end with dramatic reversals. A dramatic reversal in platinum, when it comes, would not likely be supportive to the precious metals complex. No one knows where this blow-off will end but I'll keep posting possible targets as they're approached. It blew through the fib projections and square of the price range from 1977 to 1980 I posted last week (target $1960 to $1980). The next target as mentioned in the previous platinum post is $2090, which we are essentially at now. 2090 is a Gann square of the price high in 1980 which was $1045. Platinum traded up to $2089.50 on 2/15 in the nearby electronic market (nearby in the pit traded up to 2064). If it closes above $2150, the next target gets more difficult to guess, but would likely be substantially higher. The 14 period RSI are now at all time highs on weekly and mothly charts (by a wide margin on monthly.

Kimston

[cgnx]

Now why wouldn't gold follow? the inflation adjusted plat. price is? if golds price is est. at 2,200 or so then plat.'s price should be close to 3,000.

Those figures are to get the price equal to inflation adjustments. imho we should be well above those numbers but first things first.

[kaotic]

Since there was no direct correlation with gold/silver and platinum on the way up, I don't suspect that all metals will go down hard when (or if) platinum does. I suspect that platinum has more upside actually as many pundits are getting itchy trigger fingers to short platinum already. PGMs sand PMs should stay bullish until May/June timeframe.

This post has been edited by kaotic: Feb 19 2008, 09:45 AM

[Kimston]

When this platinum blow-off exhausts it will likely drop $300 to $500 or more in matter of a few weeks. I doubt the blow-off can make it past the end of this month. The 14 period RSI on the monthly chart has the highest reading of any market at any time in the 40 year database of stocks and commodities I subscribe to. But who knows, maybe it will be the first commodity in history that went into a parabolic blow-off that wasn't followed by a massive collapse.

Kimston

[kaotic]

It appears that platinum is stalling at around 2150 after touching 2200 recently. A close under 2100 would likely indicate that some type of top has been put in place. Intermediate downside could go as low as 1700 but new highs to over 3000 are expected longer term. The technicals are coming off from extreme levels so some very sharp selling could occur at anytime.