Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, just won't go away, and remains a fairly savvy analyst.
Despite getting the blame for a good deal of the current financial mess, Greenspan remains undaunted, flaunting his predictions on a fairly regular basis.
His latest missive suggests that the Chairman is expecting worse times ahead, according to Reuters.
Greenspan, speaking in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, said that U.S. economic growth now stands a "zero", and going for some flair, he called the current rate of economic growth "stall speed."
Meanwhile only 12% of small businesses surveyed think that the Congressional stimulus package will have any impact on their business.
According to Marketwatch: "Almost 60% of those surveyed said the stimulus package will not have a significant effect on their business, according to Discover Small Business Watch, a monthly survey of 1,000 businesses with five or fewer employees," while another "29% were not sure about the stimulus package's effect."
What makes the results interesting is that while the checks to be mailed out to individuals grab the headlines, the stimulus package has other features, many of them aimed at small business.
According to Marketwatch: " the stimulus package encourages businesses to buy more equipment, such as computers, tractors and tools, by almost doubling the value of the Section 179 expense perk to as much as $250,000 of qualified expenses, up from $128,000, in 2008."
To be sure, this is not unexpected, given the overall personality characteristics of small business owners, who "have demonstrated their skepticism of government intervention programs in previous surveys."
Yet, it does provide an interesting snapshot as to where the U.S.' largest employer segment, small business, is at the moment, at least attitude wise.
Small businesses that are not feeling upbeat about the general state of affairs aren't going to be hiring, and they may not be likely to vote for the party in power, or perhaps the incumbents generally.
Small businesses can also be places where the general state of affairs is discusses among its employees and the public, as small shops can have that more personal atmosphere that lends itself to conversation.
Small businesses may also be places where talk radio is part of the atmosphere, making the exchange of ideas, well sort of more easily influenced by a small handful of individuals.
In other words, while the candidates are now playing out their cards in front of 10,000s of thousands at big rallies (at least Obama is), there are millions of small businesses out there, conduction transactions on a daily basis.
Inside those small businesses, moms, pops, cousins, brothers, sisters, and customers, are watching CNN, listening to Rush Limbaugh, and talking.
And while you can control the message at the rallies, it's hard to control millions of groups of voters that are meeting randomly, three to four people at a time.
Conclusion
The election season is about to kick into high gear, and while the hype machines are getting into full swing, a whole lot can still happen before November. And if Mr. Greenspan is correct, "Recovery might take longer to emerge than it usually does."
Small business is still the largest employer in the land, and is still a place where lots of talking and living gets done.
Remember, for every Starbucks, there is a mom and pop coffee shop that springs up somewhere, and that actually gets visited and supported, or Starbucks, despite pressure from McDonald's and Dunkin' Donuts, wouldn't be having growth problems.
I don't remember that last time we saw people talking politics at Wal-Mart, while they waited in line to be processed by the unhappy cashier. At Wal-Mart, you hear complaining about how slow the cashier line is moving, but nobody blames it on the White House or Congress.
Sure, people talk at Starbucks, and Dunkin Donuts is a planet unto itself. But, there is something different about a Mom and Pop shop. It's the way they go about their business, without the uniforms and the corporate insincerity. It's how people can still identify with hard work and genuine service.
Look, if you go to a chain dry cleaners, they give you iced tea, and make you fell like you're flying first class, but it doesn't seem genuine. All you really want is to pick up your clothes. And it's too cold outside for iced tea anyway.
If you go to the neighborhood cleaners, where the Chinese family who's owned the place for ten years knows your name, and they ask you about your family's health, and mean it, because they actually know your family, conversations that take place there sometimes can have subliminal effects down the line.
What's our point? Images of 17,000 people waving signs and chanting are an effective marketing tool.
Hearing the small business folks that know your name complaining about how tough it is to make a living, is personal.
Then comparing notes with them after you get in your car, having paid 50% more for your cleaners because of higher chemical costs, you're a bit miffed. So, it's personal.
And when enough personal events add up, people make decisions.
Bottom line: All politics are still local. And at the end of the day, all elections are personal. |
