10 replies to this topic

[Woody]

While I agree with Dharma's IT comments in the thread below........shorter term I'm surprised that a new 40 year low in the dollar hasnt resulted in a larger price gain in Gold Futures, maybe I'm way off base here but I am watching closely for a reversal day Bar which for st traders like me signals a st top. Another concern is the negative divergence on the $HUI Mclleland Summation Index I sold all of my st Gold Holdings today but if we close strongly could be back long, also tyhe idea of an extended fifth wave (of 3) with a $977 target (courtesy of Fib) is a possibility. Lets see how it plays out......if the new low in the dollar reverses quickly then that would give weight to the reversal idea. Kudos to those with a longer term view who have remained long and strong......thats not my style.

[dharma]

woody, its really not my style either. i have to grit my teeth. however, after doing this for 29yrs i have learned that the trend is your friend and a trend in motion will continue until it actually stops-aristotle. that principle and having studied and experienced parabolic blowoffs(which is how this will end) keeps me fully invested in the game. i have seen other investors who have done so, make fortunes. it is the way to real wealth. @ some point in the parabolic there wont be corrections and that is where the big money is made. so, i sit and hold. push the jello around a bit. but remain fully invested. good trading dharma

[gvc]

I am still of the thinking that we have one more bigger intermediate type of correction lasting several months before the main parbolic rise, but we could end this wave with a mini-spike to get the froth level higher.

[Woody]

woody, its really not my style either. i have to grit my teeth. however, after doing this for 29yrs i have learned that the trend is your friend and a trend in motion will continue until it actually stops-aristotle. that principle and having studied and experienced parabolic blowoffs(which is how this will end) keeps me fully invested in the game. i have seen other investors who have done so, make fortunes. it is the way to real wealth. @ some point in the parabolic there wont be corrections and that is where the big money is made. so, i sit and hold. push the jello around a bit. but remain fully invested.
good trading
dharma

Ya I cut my teeeth on Investing in 1980.....made $4000 in one week trading Haliburton options, back then i was making $20,000/year in the Steel Industry so that was big money........blew it all on Mobil Oil and Asarco options.

Not sure about Aristotle but "Newton's " First Law of Motion "Every object in a state of Uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it" (Inertia) Also credited to Galileo.

Keep us updated on your Wave counts too...much appreciated.

[dharma]

woody i think that is everyones story. our 1st trade is a success. and then we learn our lessons. always the hard way. my plan is to stay fully invested in this sector til we are into the parabolic . i try and post a few of my trades. i am not a great trader. i am good @ finding a trend and hanging on, and in this case commodities end w/a parabolic blow off. as the nasdaq did. there are much better traders on these boards than i . i am a fairly good technician though. and that what has kept a roof over my head and food in my belly. there are many skills to being successful @this dharma

[lhslancers3270]

woody i think that is everyones story. our 1st trade is a success. and then we learn our lessons. always the hard way. my plan is to stay fully invested in this sector til we are into the parabolic . i try and post a few of my trades. i am not a great trader. i am good @ finding a trend and hanging on, and in this case commodities end w/a parabolic blow off. as the nasdaq did. there are much better traders on these boards than i . i am a fairly good technician though. and that what has kept a roof over my head and food in my belly. there are many skills to being successful @this
dharma

I can pick the occasional top and bottom. Going over all the trades I have made since 2001 I can tell you with 100% certainty that a buy and hold would have beaten what I have done. The problem I have had was in not committing enough money to the short term swings. Longer term as with the physical I have been able to hold large positions without the temptation to sell spikes or bail on weakness. I think most would do better to stay fully invested as long as the trend remains up. So far the trend is strongly up that you cannot doubt.

[dharma]

lhslancers3270 , yes @time we all can pick tops and bottoms, its what encourages us to trade. but, as you suggest in your post above, a buy and hold strategy is more profitable, its the conclusion i have come to as well so your post on the thread below, you expect the gold shares to outperform(this is a question) the s&p from 1982 to 2k. and you expect the shares to top before the metals. is that correct? anything you would like to add. on the shares topping 1st, it is counter intuitive for me . so i will wait and see. i am thinking the shares will do 24x the bottom price so around 45 for the xau x24=1080eg. around 6k for gold, though i think that is too high dharma

[lhslancers3270]

lhslancers3270 , yes @time we all can pick tops and bottoms, its what encourages us to trade. but, as you suggest in your post above, a buy and hold strategy is more profitable, its the conclusion i have come to as well
so your post on the thread below, you expect the gold shares to outperform(this is a question) the s&p from 1982 to 2k. and you expect the shares to top before the metals. is that correct? anything you would like to add.
on the shares topping 1st, it is counter intuitive for me . so i will wait and see. i am thinking the shares will do 24x the bottom price so around 45 for the xau x24=1080eg. around 6k for gold, though i think that is too high
dharma

Shares topping out first is a thought shared by Petch. Although I would like to think differently I don't think this ends well. I think there is a LOT more upside to go in the shares but at some point for safety sake I will go to all Gold. IF we have a market I think it might be best to go long the broads rather than play the end of the metals bull. In the fullness of time I guess.

[cgnx]

I don't think this is the stage at which we get a big parabolic move dharma. I think gold is in a decade long or more bull market and the big parabolic move up won't be for many years. Big corrections will still occur in this sector but I agree it will be unwise to try and time them. The end for gold will be when my $3 gold stock goes to $300 after a huge move and has a major reversal. Until the penny stocks in gold have their day you can just put these stocks away.

[dharma]

cgnx, i agree the penny stocks will have their day. i do not see this lasting for decades @ most 2012 . the signs are there that we are in the base of the parabolic. i think the public is yet to come in and that will be one more sign. markets have existed through the depression and through hyperinflations(in other countries) . the markets are not going away. and i suspect as the usa goes on sale, due to its collapsing currency, their will become new foreign investors. while i expect gold to continue to appreciate in all currencies. the 72-80 bull was eight years . if the bottom was 99 2012 is the next fib # in the sequence. anyway, this is pure speculation. right now , i see higher prices ahead. alot higher. and i have a stable of explorers and juniors one of which may do 100x. dharma ps. auy was 185 in 97 its up to 18 now gbn was 25 in 93 its up to 3.4 now both these issues have improved their positions since then, i can wait!