Todd Market Forecast 2/29/8, By Steve Todd Options

[TTHQ Staff]

Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Thursday (02/28/08
www.toddmarketforecast.com
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.


DOW - 112 on 1250 net declines
NASDAQ COMP. - 22 on 950 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish

After four days in a row on the upside, the stock market was ready for a pullback and the weaker than expected GDP and a 3% rise in the price of oil didn’t help. Also, Bernanke testified that he had some bank failure concerns. Mercifully, he won’t be speaking again on Friday. This should give us some relief. Is it my imagination or does he speak every other day?

I would anticipate that Friday will be higher. When there are over 1000 net declining issues such as we had today, there is a tendency for the next day to rebound. Of course, that assumes no really bad news to contend with.

On a longer term basis, we appear to be curling up from an oversold condition. We can see this on the weekly chart shown to e-mail subscribers along with 5 week RSI.

Gold just keeps on surging, on the way to $1000. The continuing carnage in the dollar is the main reason. Crude oil also ripped higher. Bonds make a top above a previous top and look to be headed higher.



NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

The GDP for Q4 rose 0.6%, slightly less than the expected 0.8%. The chain deflator, which measures inflation, rose 2.7% more than the consensus 2.6%. Initial claims 373,000, more than the 350.000 that economists were expecting. On Friday we get personal income and personal spending.



BOTTOM LINE:

Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal. Mutual fund investors and investors in the S&P 500 ETF symbol SPY are 100% long. The SPY was bought at 146.62.

Short term ETF traders are in cash. Let’s stay there for right now.



OTHER MARKETS

We are on a buy for bonds as of February 21.

We are on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the Euro as of February 27.

We are on a buy for gold as of February 19.

We are on a buy for crude as of January 24.

We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.



STEPHEN TODD A SHORT BIOGRAPHY

Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.

Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.

His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.

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