SectorVue for 3/3/8
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TTHQ Staff
, Mar 03 2008 10:25 AM
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#1
Posted 03 March 2008 - 10:25 AM
SectorVue by David Schultz for March 3rd , 2008
Look before you Leap
The Dow Jones closed down 114 points for the week while the NDX ended down 28
points after Fridays fall erased earlier gains. Volatility VIX spiked up Friday to 25 and
change while 32 million shares of the Ultra Short QQQ etf QiD traded. Volume in Bearish
etfs has been more indicative of market panic than Put buying and a rise in the VIX of late.
Sector Action for the week was minus 1057. The Market Barometer bottomed Jan 22nd
and was making headway until getting bonked on leap day. The market insists on
repeatedly testing for a bottom. Our Sector portfolio is up 2.7% versus market indices
down 9%.
Mostly cash waiting for the next dip. With the next FOMC meeting still weeks away traders
are still on ‘monoline insurer watch’. We will see if Paulson or Bernanke can pull a rabbit
out of a hat this week.
Rydex Alerts- Cash
Short term Trading indicator- Oversold. Tradewind has crossed into bullish territory.
INTERMEDIATE TERM TRENDS- Crossing into Bullish Territory.
INTERMEDIATE OSCILLATOR - slipped on the banana peel Friday. Needs to find support
Monday or it will become ‘oversolder’.
Retest is the word we want to avoid this week. Keep an eye on the bank stocks for signs of life.
Gold XAU- Number one in Sector rank and not that overbought. The goldbugs may
swarm again but I would be selling rallies.
Utilities UTY- Last in overall rank taking a nosedive ahead of lower interest rates. At
some point soon it will pay to sell gold stocks and buy utilities. With dividends approaching
4% stocks like Dominion Resources D may be irresistable.
Ultra ETF’s- Cash looking to buy Bullish NDX QLD.
Oil Patch OSX, XOI,XNG- The stocks are well off yearly highs while oil itself hit an all time
high of $102.
This is a fairly noticeable divergence which needs to resolve itself. If worldwide economies
are slowing there oil should trade down to $80 rather than spurting up to $120.
Banks BKX- Bernanke gave credence to the reality some Banks will fail and should fail
due to their participation in the hideous mortgage mess. BBT is my only bank holding.
Technology TXX and Semiconductor SOX- Showing some signs of life. Marvell MRVL
earnings due Thursday.
Broker Dealer XBD- Fell into the bottom ranks which is not good for the overall market.
Last years leader Goldman GS has that sinking feeling.
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This report is for educational purposes only and does not constitute "investment advice".










