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[TTHQ Staff]

Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Thursday (03/06/08)
www.toddmarketforecast.com
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 215 on 2450 net declines
NASDAQ COMP. - 52 on 1700 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bearish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish

We broke the supports discussed in the update for Tuesday and we are now moving to a short term sell. It’s a bit uncomfortable doing this in the face of a severely oversold market with pessimism rampant, but the most important indicator is price.

I had an e-mail from a subscriber in Canada, taking me to task for not seeming to understand that in a bear market, oversold short term gauges tend not to work.

Actually, I do realize this and I have been very concerned about it. However, some of the longer term gauges such as monthly RSI which I showed on page 2 of the latest newsletter are in a posture that is consistent with bear market lows.

Today, we broke the closing lows of January 22nd on most important indices and this moved us out of the market on a short term basis.

I didn’t expect it to drop this low, but now that it’s here, we have to be circumspect about selling out,

If we break the intraday lows of January, we will be forced to move to an intermediate term sell regardless of how oversold the longer term gauges are. We are going to have to pay much more attention to the chart patterns regardless of the peripheral indicators such as sentiment and momentum.

Gold fell back a bit, but crude continued higher. Bonds also managed a small gain.



NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

Initial claims came in at 351,000, less than the expected 360,000. Pending home sales were flat. The consensus was for a drop of 1.0%. Mortgage delinquencies were 5.82% up from 5.59%. This is the highest since 1985. On Friday we get the dreaded non farm payrolls.



BOTTOM LINE:

Our intermediate term systems are on a buy signal. Mutual fund investors and investors in the S&P 500 ETF symbol SPY are 100% long. The SPY was bought at 146.62.

Short term ETF traders are in cash. Let’s stay there for right now.



OTHER MARKETS

We are on a buy for bonds as of February 21.

We are on a sell for the dollar and a buy for the Euro as of February 27.

We are on a buy for gold as of March 5.

We are on a buy for crude as of March 5.

We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.




STEPHEN TODD: A SHORT BIOGRAPHY

Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.

Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The National Educator, and others.

His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto, Ontario.

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