15 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Now someone please enlighten me how this is a bullish looking chart from an intermediate perspective, ST bounces besides.

Rejection from declining tops line
Break of uptrend line
Two daily closes below the horizontal channel

The measured move from a classic TA perspective is SPX 1236. E-wave Target for the decline is 1248. Further projections may be generated based on how we bounce out of that area ( if we get there, that is)




Have a great weekend !

Edited by NAV, 07 March 2008 - 04:25 PM.

[A-ha]

I showed that pattern here before it even brokedown... it is formed on NDX not SPX... on SPX it comes from the openning of Jan 22 or 24 ... those giant doji days i mean... anyway, now everybody see it... it has no importance for intermediate term whatsoever... that is exactly what i said when i posted it a few days ago...

Edited by A-ha, 07 March 2008 - 05:13 PM.

[Jnavin]

Volume is the issue.
"Wyckoff’s idea behind ‘trade facilitation’ was simple: the effect (range) ought to mirror the cause (volume)...many modern traders are unaware that Wyckoff’’s approach wasdiametrically opposite to Richard Schabacker’s, the uncle of RobertEdwards (Edwards and Magee fame)."
Signficantly less volume on today's low versus the late January low is key.

[TheArchitect]

anyway, now everybody see it... it has no importance for intermediate term whatsoever... that is exactly what i said when i posted it a few days ago...

that statement could hold water... so i'm not arguing your point... however... didn't everybody see the H & S forming on the dow and spx? and didn't it hold up to the projected target once it broke the neckline... so once again... we broke out of a classic pattern... and are on our way to the projected target (ST bounces excluded)... and further weighing on the probability of a continued move down to the target was the confirmed back kiss some were looking for of the broken trendline on wednesday... anyway... just some thoughts... ... -TA


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&i=p29179762543&a=129682064&r=9969.PNG

[NAV]

Jnavin, Just an example from recent history. 8/1/07 we plunged on big volume. That low was tested on 8/14 on puny volume. One could have called that divergence. That never predicted what was to going come on 8/15 and 8/16. We lost another 60 SPX points on record volume. The point is we don't know what kind of volume is going to come in the event we break the Jan lows. That's an event that has not occured. If you are precluding that event based on what has occured today, you could have done the same on 8/14 as well. I can show you many more examples like that. Divergences - momentum or volume or anything else is what we see currently and they can always be erased. To confirm the divergence two things need to happen - the price need to turn up. The NYSE Vol MCO which is in a plunge mode has to turn up. Both have not occurred so far. Until that happens the trend rules. You response. P.S - Look at the relative volume on 1/9/08 and 1/15/08. That says the same story as well.

Edited by NAV, 07 March 2008 - 11:11 PM.

[IYB]

-Your response?

[NAV]

-Your response?

?

Yep ! Thanks.

Edited by NAV, 08 March 2008 - 12:09 AM.

[Jnavin]

I'm talking about significant price bars and significant differences in volume, not the noise the comes in between. For a discussion and explanation of how to discern the difference I would go to John Murphy's Technical Analysis of Financial Markets (the chapter on volume) or Tom O'Brien's Timing the Trade which gets into the Wyckoffian details.

It's important to consider context as well -- right now, we're seeing important divergences in bullish percentage and on the VIX chart. One conclusion would be that there's less fear here.

Also, in your citing the summation gauge, you failed to note the upsloping trendline which connects the August low with the November low and which is about to be hit -- a likely bounce spot.

I don't much appreciate the "ha ha you didn't even repond" stuff. It seems rude and unnecessary and has an unfortunate junior high school quality to it -- hell, when trading stops on Friday afternoon, I may not even be back here until Monday morning.

Edited by Jnavin, 08 March 2008 - 06:39 AM.

[humble1]

nav: i am so glad to see someone bring up edwards and magee, the chart masters for so very long. i was raised on these two and their classic chart patterns. they were the "technicals" part of my training which was simply: "when technicals confirm the fundamentals, you have a trade." that mantra has just done very well by me in the grain markets. i mentioned that a good while back but realizing there was very little interest here, i dropped the subject. and it has recently stood the test of time, once again, in the equity markets

[wyocowboy]

For what it is worth, 1270 on the SPX and then 1236 was suggested by John Roque the other day. I consider Roque a pretty good technician. The 1236 area was good support in 2006. Also it just occurred to me that 2 year lows tend to be bottoms, but that is an off the cuff observation that needs to be tested.

Edited by wyocowboy, 08 March 2008 - 06:57 AM.