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#1 AChartist

AChartist

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Posted 10 March 2008 - 11:30 PM

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The blue line is SP500 since 1989. The straight line is the linear regression trend.
The trend slope is 5.36 points per month.

You can see the big problem, in 1989 at a value of 300, 5.3 points per month was a
21% annual gain. That's why we made so much money in stock markets in 1980's.

Now, the same slope 5.36 points per mo. from a value of 1300 is only 4.8% return per year
which doesnt keep up with inflation.

This is how badly the economy and govt is mismanaged and how much waste and corruption
there is.

This is why people arent investors anymore, only traders.

The pink line is detrended, subtracting the trend slope. Given that the
robust 20% trend slope of 1989 is now lagging inflation badly, all those suckers
in 401k's are going to bail when they wake up to what is going on.

The whole generation had 6 years of relative properity, stick a fork in it.

Edited by AChartist, 10 March 2008 - 11:31 PM.

"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#2 sagitarius_d

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Posted 11 March 2008 - 09:35 AM

Posted Image


The blue line is SP500 since 1989. The straight line is the linear regression trend.
The trend slope is 5.36 points per month.

You can see the big problem, in 1989 at a value of 300, 5.3 points per month was a
21% annual gain. That's why we made so much money in stock markets in 1980's.

Now, the same slope 5.36 points per mo. from a value of 1300 is only 4.8% return per year
which doesnt keep up with inflation.

This is how badly the economy and govt is mismanaged and how much waste and corruption
there is.

This is why people arent investors anymore, only traders.

The pink line is detrended, subtracting the trend slope. Given that the
robust 20% trend slope of 1989 is now lagging inflation badly, all those suckers
in 401k's are going to bail when they wake up to what is going on.

The whole generation had 6 years of relative properity, stick a fork in it.


So what happens when you add the dividend yield? How many points is that?

What if you started in 1957 when SPX was trading in the teens?

What do you recommend we invest our money in this stagflationary environment?