15 replies to this topic

[dharma]

from a post on another thread:if one looks at a gold chart over the last few years. 675,775,875,975 all produced consolidations which led to up moves above the round # , this is what it appears we have here. today is the bradley. next week cyclic lows are due in the broads. and the following week, the fed will work its magic. looking for a continuation out of the consolidation. dharma ps. if anyone was around during the previous bull market, the imf gold sales were an event that created buying opportunity. this time it was a one day pullback. there are lots of dollar holders that would love to change the dollars into gold. well we are forming a pennant in gold @present. pennants are continuation patterns. yesterday, on hourly charts, xau/hui formed hourly divergences from oversold condition and today we have a rally. my work shows a rally over 1k and fairly soon. the correction/consolidation is serving its purpose. i dont know when, but the miners will have their day. its only a matter of time before this sector gets discovered. in 1973 the broads were diving and the gold stocks went on a tear. this is the only time, to my memory when the shares diverged from the broads. so, i am not banking on this dharma

[cgnx]

Charts are improving and when the breakouits start happening the momo folks will get involved. The William O'neill crowd. We are approaching that phase.

[dharma]

looks like xau/hui are making completing a cup and handle. dharma todays coordinated actions by the feds is inflationary, it is pulling a rabbit out of a hat! buckle up!

[dharma]

got a confirmed buy signal on xau/hui yesterday. dharma

[kaotic]

Dharma, you are absolutely correct regarding gold's consolidation at the .750 marker. Right now, gold has been consolidating for close to 3 weeks now at the 960-990 zone with 975 being the mean. The seasonal service that I use shows gold starting to bottom out and the turn up from March 12-30 which is right in this timeframe. Given that fact that the Dollar continues to stumble, I suspect that the much anticipated mover over $1000 is likely only days away now. Once we break over this level, then prices should really begin to take off quite dramatically. For the record, I continue to hold April Gold Futures with the intent of rolling over to June.

Edited by kaotic, 12 March 2008 - 10:21 AM.

[johngeorge]

got a confirmed buy signal on xau/hui yesterday. dharma

dharma
Thank you for the continued updates. I cant tell you how many times your succinct, accurate commentary and analysis has kept me in PM shares when I thought it best to be out.
Best to you.

[dharma]

got a confirmed buy signal on xau/hui yesterday. dharma

dharma
Thank you for the continued updates. I cant tell you how many times your succinct, accurate commentary and analysis has kept me in PM shares when I thought it best to be out.
Best to you.

john george- my view is, this market will end in a parabolic blowoff, w/several limit up days along the way. until that occurs i am on board for the ride 100%. all the rest is background noise. this quote from jessie livermore, taken off jsmineset.com
"For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and
I had backed my opinion by buying stocks. An advance followed, as I had clearly
foreseen. So far, all very well. But what else did I do? Why, I listened to the
elder statesmen and curbed my youthful impetuousness. I made up my mind to be wise
carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits
and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather
what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never
came. And I saw my stock go kitting up ten points more and I sitting there with
my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket. They say you never go broke
taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point
profit in a bull market.

I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last
that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this
is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the
individual fluctuations but in the main movements - that is, not in reading the
tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains
they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did.
He had not only the courage of his convictions but also the intelligence and patience
to sit tight.

Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody
can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until
you believe the bull market is near its end."
dharma

[cgnx]

The hard part is that this bull is harder to guage than a stock going up. The normal gauges like p/e and book value etc... are meaningless. I think you have to have lived through a few bulls to understand. I doubt someone can learn it from a book. I have some targets in mindas to where we go and a plan in place. All you can do.

[dharma]

The hard part is that this bull is harder to guage than a stock going up. The normal gauges like p/e and book value etc... are meaningless. I think you have to have lived through a few bulls to understand. I doubt someone can learn it from a book. I have some targets in mindas to where we go and a plan in place. All you can do.

i agree w/you there is no substitute for experience. having seen the bull of 79-80, @this point i feel prepared for what is coming. @that time all commodities were in blow off mode. as was the nasdaq in 2k. these all end one way- in a parabolic blowoff. there will be limit up days. there will be VOLATILITY. there will be fortunes made. and there will be most who planned for this move, saw it coming, and played it smart and missed the move. i really have no # in mind, more a set of circumstances. we are no where near the top yet. i hope to be screaming when we are @ what i think is close.
dharma

Edited by dharma, 12 March 2008 - 01:25 PM.

[dharma]

ok the battle @1k is here! it will fall, ie the round #. hank on the tubes talking about a strong dollar. fed throwing billions @the problem but it wont go away. it will soon be apparent to the bulls/bears this is the sector for survival. we are not there yet. the facade will continue. holding my positions. fear the solution will be war, as it always has been. dailies not overbought yet on hui/xau. not sure on gold will see @the close. soon all the doubters will see the light. too high @1 , but 2k will be very appealing and make sense. buckle up. dharma,