technically... what should happened has begun... see Last Nights Post
step 1 of 4 was today... we rallied into FOMC, and allowed the VIX to drop back down... now the hourly's are still setting up for a drop... they were setting up for a drop an hour before FOMC statement... and the bounce back rally that we ended on hasn't changed that signal...
so a decline is due into thursday... but... that should do it... and the harder it falls... the better the setup for a big April advance... a clear divergence on the VIX and a given oscillator (i'm using the CCI for this)... marking a significant IT bottom... the weekly charts are suggesting this and have been building the case for weeks now...
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p55567999329&a=133461914&r=7276.png
http://stockcharts.c...3458&r=7176.png
I SHORTED THAT %$#@ing CLOSE... YEP...
Started by
TheArchitect
, Mar 18 2008 04:49 PM
6 replies to this topic
#2
atlasshrugged
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Posted 18 March 2008 - 04:53 PM
technically... what should happened has begun... see Last Nights Post
step 1 of 4 was today... we rallied into FOMC, and allowed the VIX to drop back down... now the hourly's are still setting up for a drop... they were setting up for a drop an hour before FOMC statement... and the bounce back rally that we ended on hasn't changed that signal...
so a decline is due into thursday... but... that should do it... and the harder it falls... the better the setup for a big April advance... a clear divergence on the VIX and a given oscillator (i'm using the CCI for this)... marking a significant IT bottom... the weekly charts are suggesting this and have been building the case for weeks now...
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p55567999329&a=133461914&r=7276.png
http://stockcharts.c...3458&r=7176.png
Aint going to happen...today was called a "LOCKOUT" the opening gap was never filled and gilligan and all the other shorts are left behind as the minnow sails upward...believe me if it lets you back in NOW you dont want back in
Edited by iron cross, 18 March 2008 - 04:54 PM.
#3
TheArchitect
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Posted 18 March 2008 - 05:00 PM
Aint going to happen...today was called a "LOCKOUT" the opening gap was never filled and gilligan and all the other shorts are left behind as the minnow sails upward...believe me if it lets you back in NOW you dont want back in
didn't we gap up on 2/11... that didnt get filled... right away... mid day on 2/12 i posted that we were running out of steam... and was shorting... well it got filled didnt it?
the best thing about shorting the close... was where we closed... right at the top of that falling wedge... that's statistically a good reversal pattern... so i'm in as close to a breakout point as you could ask for... if we bust through the top of that pattern tomorrow... and hold... i'll join you on the early bull side for April RALLY
#4
atlasshrugged
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Posted 18 March 2008 - 05:28 PM
Aint going to happen...today was called a "LOCKOUT" the opening gap was never filled and gilligan and all the other shorts are left behind as the minnow sails upward...believe me if it lets you back in NOW you dont want back in
didn't we gap up on 2/11... that didnt get filled... right away... mid day on 2/12 i posted that we were running out of steam... and was shorting... well it got filled didnt it?
the best thing about shorting the close... was where we closed... right at the top of that falling wedge... that's statistically a good reversal pattern... so i'm in as close to a breakout point as you could ask for... if we bust through the top of that pattern tomorrow... and hold... i'll join you on the early bull side for April RALLY
LOL! I hear ya! this one is for real because today i woke up and almost threw in the towel!!!
#5
TheArchitect
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Posted 18 March 2008 - 05:40 PM
LOL! I hear ya! this one is for real because today i woke up and almost threw in the towel!!!
i woke up today and tripped over a 20 lb cat...
#6
SemiBizz
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Posted 18 March 2008 - 05:43 PM
As you can see from your weekly which also agrees with the 65 min, you want to see this thing go just a little higher now on light volume to set this up... Bring on the gap up!
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#7
TheArchitect
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Posted 18 March 2008 - 06:21 PM
As you can see from your weekly which also agrees with the 65 min, you want to see this thing go just a little higher now on light volume to set this up... Bring on the gap up!
well i'm hedged w/ spx...april 1340 calls... net short 80-20 at close...so a gap up should be fine... delta's greater on the spx calls than on any of my puts... so i'm not worried about any gap... that'll just gimmie more buying power to scale back into the shorties... good that your watching those weeklys though... cause they're kinda signaling a change working itself out...
