8 replies to this topic

[VolPivots]

8.6month, 38.2week, 261.8CD/180TD....whatever ya wanna call it not as visible/clean on the charts since mid-2006, but it's still there......... 3/12/2003 Bear market end 11/28/2003 Insignificant 8/16/2004 IT bottom on 8/13/04 5/5/2005 Triple IT bottom 4/20, 4/28 and 5/13 1/22/2006 bottom 1/20/06 10/11/2006 Insignificant 6/29/2007 bottom on 6/27 3/17/2008 ???

[arbman]

Try counting back about 96-98 wks from June 2006 low, then counting another 96-98 wk back to 2002 lows. Now, if that's kind of interesting, try counting 96-98 wks ahead to 2008. It is more visible on NDX, but SPX will also do.

[hedgehawk]

Dude your killing me what week is ur 97 week in 2008?

[LarryT]

Dude your killing me what week is ur 97 week in 2008?

Note the .382 and .618 point to significant lows also.

[VolPivots]

Looks like LT beat me to it. Why mid-Apr may hold some timing significance: other day I said if FXI 120ish fails to hold, we're looking at 104 by mid-April. Double-fibo confluence 50% retracement of ATH to ATL and 61.8% of ATH to Jun06 intersects with LT channel line connecting Oct05 and June06. But 120 needs to meaningfully fail before that has any chance for a final panic into mid-April.........I ain't holding my breath for that to happen as the majority of stuph I look at says last week was it for a while.

[LarryT]

Note the .382 and .618 point to significant lows also. [/quote] Same chart with wave counts and two technical tools. If you told me I could only have one technical tool it would be the two STDV regression channel. From the 2002 low to the W-5 high in July 2007 notice almost all trading occurs inside the channel? A trend is "broken" when price drops below an up trend chanel, makes an attempt to return inside the channel, fails and makes a lower low. Notice that has happened for this up trend channel. The low at 1270 rallied up to the channel, failed to return inside and dropped to a lower low at 1256. Up trend broken. The second tool is a price time ellipse that will identify when the correction for this five waves up has completed. The ellipse includes data from the 2002 low to 2007 high and is working off how low and how much time has elapsed. The ellipse top shadow started at price 1265 time 10-08-2010. The bottom of the ellipse is at 983. At some point in time the bottom will ocur along the line connecting the upper shadow and the ellipse when the upper shadow and the lower ellipse merge and lock down. Notice the wave counts align with the Fibonacci ratios for the 96 weeks elapsed from the 2002 low to the 2004 low? Wave 4 is the .618 of that time period, wave 2 of W-5 is twice 96 weeks, wave 4 of W-5 is .382 of 96 weeks, wave A is .618 of 96 weeks. Odds are the 1256 low is a slightly early third 96 weeks cycle and on the larger bear market time frame price will again try to return to the previous bull market regression channel near the 1430s or later on in 2009 at 1522. Either price is possible with early 2009 at 1522 more probable. It will fail there and take out 1256 on the way down in 2009. Best, Larry

[milbank]

Thanks for posting your charts and LT analysis Larry. Same to you marketneutral.

Edited by milbank, 22 March 2008 - 11:11 AM.

[StillLearnin]

Thanks for posting your charts and LT analysis Larry.

I agree. Good Stuff LT and MN

Thanks.

SL

[The End]

As usual Larry, Your work looks great on paper. I hope you capitalize on it. Good trading to ya.

Edited by The End, 22 March 2008 - 11:13 AM.