7 replies to this topic

[Woody]

Chart of Cash USD Index suggests a test of lows about 70.60 is in the offing, If this happens and we hold onto an RSI positive divergence, could set up a nice countertrend rally in the dollar.

A slight new Low in the Dollar would likely not be accompanied by a new high in Gold but may provide a nice short entry for what could be a wave c down

Of course this is one of several possible scenarios, this outcome is supported by Sentiment and COT so worth watching as it should play out very soon.

[StillLearnin]

Woody, I like it! And that would jive with Blustar, myself and others who are looking for a C wave up starting sometime between tomorrow and Monday. SL

[lhslancers3270]

Sounds plausible. Bobby Orr.

[Specul8]

Woody, I'm short gold and long the USD so I'm in complete agreement. In addition the increased up volume on UUP and yesterday's retracement to the lower BB on the daily and today's poke above yesterday's high confirms your breakout. I'm wondering if your target is a 50% retrace of the fall from 77?

[Woody]

Woody,

I'm short gold and long the USD so I'm in complete agreement. In addition the increased up volume on UUP and yesterday's retracement to the lower BB on the daily and today's poke above yesterday's high confirms your breakout. I'm wondering if your target is a 50% retrace of the fall from 77?

These retracements in Currency mkts can gain considerable momo and go further than anyone thinks.....I'd say 75 min possibly 77, declining tops line comes in about 76, there are a ton of people offside on a rally and loaded up on Commodities, although LT bearish Trend, the st-it could test the Bullish thesis in Commodities

Just as a caveat tho, watch out for false starts as we have seen a few so far, i'd still like to see a bit lower low on the USD...in a perfect Technical World

Edited by Woody, 28 March 2008 - 08:58 AM.

[Woody]

Sounds plausible. Bobby Orr.

the tape job on his stick gave it away.........

[johngeorge]

Woody
Here we see a seasonal chart of the dollar indicating we are moving into a stronger dollar period. In the event we do retrace to 75 - 77 area I do believe it maybe one of the very last rallies in the dollar for a while to come. Maybe the election of a new president, whoever that may be, will bring about a full blown rally in the dollar, but, if the financial system cant get out of its sick bed by then and we are still borrowing like nuts to fund our budgets I have to say that dollar rally would be over quickly as well.

Commodities IMO need a rest here after an extended uptrend. I think it is a good time to start adding more of them to portfolios or buy if you dont already own some. IMO food, PM's, oil, etc still have higher to go. dharma said it/ I believe it: stagflation is here.....the dollar is toast.
Im still long full position in UNG and partial position in DBA.

Best to you.

[Woody]

Woody
Here we see a seasonal chart of the dollar indicating we are moving into a stronger dollar period. In the event we do retrace to 75 - 77 area I do believe it maybe one of the very last rallies in the dollar for a while to come. Maybe the election of a new president, whoever that may be, will bring about a full blown rally in the dollar, but, if the financial system cant get out of its sick bed by then and we are still borrowing like nuts to fund our budgets I have to say that dollar rally would be over quickly as well.

Commodities IMO need a rest here after an extended uptrend. I think it is a good time to start adding more of them to portfolios or buy if you dont already own some. IMO food, PM's, oil, etc still have higher to go. dharma said it/ I believe it: stagflation is here.....the dollar is toast.
Im still long full position in UNG and partial position in DBA.

Best to you.

John essentially agree with all you have said, we just need to stick handle how we play it.......still think we need a strong few weeks in $ to reduce number of shorts and also as you say shakeout commodities, interesting I observed declining open interest on many commodities during the last 4-6 weeks of rally, that was a bit of a tip off......not so much for crude tho

Best to you too