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APA high flag


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#1 CHAx

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Posted 01 April 2008 - 08:07 PM

Oil stocks have not broken down with crude prices yet.

This formation biases to the upside and rarely fails to follow through once it has made a move outside the price levels. I am looking for a daily close outside the price lines highlighted. a Confirmed breakout would be above 122 or below 118 on a Closing basis. This is a price only indicator. Use stops.


I will likely cushion the lower flag line by an extra point because of my bias to the upside and the possibility the flag continues the trend longer before breakout (within the red lines).


I will give price projection once we see if we get a kissback to the trendline after a confirmed breakout. A kissback would have me double my position and look for slighly less total upside (or downside).


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#2 Jnavin

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Posted 01 April 2008 - 09:00 PM

Nice chartwork, thanks for posting.
On the top chart, I see a clear 5-wave impulse up from the mid-Jan lows.
I would guess that an A-B-C correction is next -- C wave likely to reclaim the 4th wave area of 105 before moving higher.
XOI -- Amex index of oil stocks -- not looking quite as healthy as APA by itself.
My best regards,
John

Edited by Jnavin, 01 April 2008 - 09:05 PM.


#3 CHAx

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Posted 01 April 2008 - 09:17 PM

Nice chartwork, thanks for posting.
On the top chart, I see a clear 5-wave impulse up from the mid-Jan lows.
I would guess that an A-B-C correction is next -- C wave likely to reclaim the 4th wave area of 105 before moving higher.
XOI -- Amex index of oil stocks -- not looking quite as healthy as APA by itself.
My best regards,
John



If you are seeing a 5 wave wouldn't that mean this thing is out of steam and we cannot go higher? the 3 wave total size would be smaller than the wave 5 if this extends its gains?


Absolutely agree that other oils stocks are not looking as strong. Most individual charts look indecisive, the index looks weaker than most individual charts on their own. I'm definately saying oil "may" not have topped since most think it has. You know we could be entering a range and that would be enough for me to be very bullish on oil/gas producers. Just cautioning that the index may be giving a fakeout. Trade safe.

Edited by CHAx, 01 April 2008 - 09:24 PM.


#4 marco

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Posted 01 April 2008 - 11:37 PM

FWIW, Jack Chan has OIH and XLE on a buy.

http://stockcharts.c...84904&r=634.png

http://stockcharts.c...86280&r=982.png

Edited by marco, 01 April 2008 - 11:40 PM.


#5 CHAx

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Posted 02 April 2008 - 01:26 AM

FWIW, Jack Chan has OIH and XLE on a buy.

http://stockcharts.c...84904&r=634.png

http://stockcharts.c...86280&r=982.png



Thanks macro