9 replies to this topic

[CHAx]

Will add thoughts later

[CHAx]

Both my price targets were hit today on a closing basis. I think I may be at the mercy of the general market here however. I believe I correctly called that oil had not "topped" as many were thinking. The issue was many oil/gas drillers stocks had not responded to the collapse in crude prices.

With BIDU, we have recently had as much as 50 percent short interest and a NDX that appears to be bottoming. We shall see, stop 270.

Posts from yesterday:
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=86714
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=86717

[CHAx]

If you guys click the links you will see I have included charts and how i defined breakout prices. more of a TA perspective then the arguments I listed above.

[thespookyone]

"I believe I correctly called that oil had not "topped" as many were thinking." Wow, are we back above 110 again?

[CHAx]

"I believe I correctly called that oil had not "topped" as many were thinking."

Wow, are we back above 110 again?

Hey I wasn't trying to sound like I know everything -- I certainly don't.

Topping action, in my book, is when we get a much more severe pull back --- 20% or more. And we may get one, but not yet. I think we either have entered a new range, or look for new highs. That's what oil stocks are telling me through my TA. Take a look at BRY or CLR or CHK or DVN and tell me what you see.


I post because I want to see someone counter my TA with what they see, not sarcastically criticize my call without asking me what I mean by topping or critiquing my post in a constructive manner. Thanks.

[thespookyone]

The way your call was characterized-as a completed success, I hardly feel my reply was sarcastic. Are we down 20%-no, BUT, topping moves are almost never completed in one stroke-and I feel this is little more than a "B" up in a larger move down. To claim we are not seeing a topping move, is, I feel, a bit premature. I see no reason to believe that a one day $3 move has now put us in a new trading range, or headed to new highs. Those charts don't look bad, but a couple look to be completing wave 5 moves with little left. I could show you many that have completed 5, dropped to A, and are working up to B, as well. My point-the jury is still out here-your "no topping" call.

Edited by thespookyone, 02 April 2008 - 11:32 PM.

[CHAx]

The way your call was characterized-as a completed success, I hardly feel my reply was sarcastic. Are we down 20%-no, BUT, topping moves are almost never completed in one stroke-and I feel this is little more than a "B" up in a larger move down. To claim we are not seeing a topping move, is, I feel, a bit premature. I see no reason to believe that a one day $3 move has now put us in a new trading range, or headed to new highs. Those charts don't look bad, but a couple look to be completing wave 5 moves with little left. I could show you many that have completed 5, dropped to A, and are working up to B, as well. My point-the jury is still out here-your "no topping" call.

Great point. It could be an ABC move. I won't write that possibility off. Which is why I may get stopped out, as this is "barely" a breakout and might simply be a headfake. I need continuation tomorrow, or my trade is in trouble.

[thespookyone]

CHAx=I do feel it is an abc, but still think your play is a good one-it's all about time frames. Check the weekly out on the OIH, looks like the possible H+S forming has the volume in the right places so far. Might take the OIH up to 190-191 or so for the right shoulder? Just a thought. Good luck on the trade, and make some nice money-that's what we are here for!

[marco]

The way I view it, the daily trend for oil is down (weekly is still up):

http://stockcharts.c...7058&r=9672.png

And the trend for oil stocks is up:

http://stockcharts.c...7058&r=9672.png

I'm not smart enough to figure out why that is.

Note, the charts are three-line break, which is why they look so odd. But you can clearly see that they're heading in different directions.

A caveat: the USO chart merely shows a downside reversal. It really needs to have more "red boxes" cascading down to show a truer downtrend.

And yes, this is my first foray into three-line break charts, so I can't vouch for them based on experience. But they have worked very well for the backtesting I've done for various securities.

[CHAx]

The way I view it, the daily trend for oil is down (weekly is still up):

http://stockcharts.c...7058&r=9672.png

And the trend for oil stocks is up:

http://stockcharts.c...7058&r=9672.png

I'm not smart enough to figure out why that is.

Note, the charts are three-line break, which is why they look so odd. But you can clearly see that they're heading in different directions.

A caveat: the USO chart merely shows a downside reversal. It really needs to have more "red boxes" cascading down to show a truer downtrend.

And yes, this is my first foray into three-line break charts, so I can't vouch for them based on experience. But they have worked very well for the backtesting I've done for various securities.

Hey thanks for the post. This is clearly a very volatile price area for both commodities and commodity producers. Profit potential is huge if you're on the right side . Trade safe.