12 replies to this topic

[NAV]

IndyMac is history. Fannie and Freddie are toast. BKX deep down in the gutter. Run on the banks and my money ain't safe there. Someone said even treasuries aren't safe anymore. There are questions on who will bail the Fed, the U.S govt, the treasury.....Now where do i put my money ? Can the news get worse ? Can the fundamentalists get more cocky ? And all these plethora of negative news converging at a technical measured move target ! Hmmmm........

[hiker]

NAV -

you have an update of your 7/13/07 post?...since we are now 1 year past the entry of that thought ...how does this week's "capitulation" fit in with your earlier X wave concluding in 2008 idea?-

After we broke out in June 2006, i wrote my long term thoughts on my blog and had projected SPX 1620 by 2009.


Based on how the pattern is progressing, i think that projection should be fullfilled over the next 3-4 months making a huge top around Oct-Nov 2007. Given the time requirements for the primary degree wave B, it's not reasonable to call this the end of primary degree wave B. This would conclude the first leg of the bull market (a-b-c of primary degree wave B ). What follows a A-B-C in a complex correction is a wave X. Wave X are rogue waves. They come out of the blue with no warning. Once this wave X concludes somewhere in 2008, another large advance should carry us into the primary degree wave B top somewhere during 2009-2010. I will update my blog with charts showing what i am seeing.

Good luck everyone.

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=72714

[SemiBizz]

Well, since I'm the one who wondered about the safety of the treasuries.... I did also forecast the bullish spring you see on your quote screen right now. Volume tells me we're not done on the downside yet, so I will try not to let scam week activities lull me into the false impression that we are at the bottom. Now if the data changes, so will I... But for now, mois in not surprised by anything we see here... it's all in my forecasts if you read them.

[IndexTrader]

IndyMac is history. Fannie and Freddie are toast. BKX deep down in the gutter. Run on the banks and my money ain't safe there. Someone said even treasuries aren't safe anymore. There are questions on who will bail the Fed, the U.S govt, the treasury.....Now where do i put my money ? Can the news get worse ? Can the fundamentalists get more cocky ? And all these plethora of negative news converging at a technical measured move target ! Hmmmm........

You saw em walking out of IndyMac with their money (as long as it wasn't over $100K). Fannie and Freddie definitely won't be toast as organizations....perhaps the stockholders though take it in the shorts. Treasuries not safe? Please....you may lose to inflation at most.

That said, plenty of negative news for sure. I bought some Wells Fargo this AM (WFC) and some JP Morgan Chase (JPM) as longer term trades. I also bought some ES, although I've now sold that.

Generally speaking it seems as if the news got to a crescendo this AM. So a bounce seemed to be in order. But there not much of a technical foundation for a major upmove at this point...in my opinion.

IT

[arbman]

... never mind speed reading...

Edited by arbman, 15 July 2008 - 11:38 AM.

[NAV]

Hiker, After we broke 1370 last year, i had given a measured move target of SPX 1160 +/- 20 points, which is on my blog. The current decline from May has a measured move of SPX 1200 on the daily charts. I will post the chart later. So SPX 1140-1200 is a major bargain hunting territory for LT players. Any scary drop into this area will be bought furiously by the LT players. The easy part of short selling is over IMO. Now i am not so sure, if we are going to tag SPX 1160 in this leg of the correction. Maybe that target is reserved for the second leg of the decline. We should start a major Wave B rally from this general area, which should take anywhere between 8-12 months to complete. I will post a LT update, when i have more information.

[hiker]

After we broke out in June 2006, i wrote my long term thoughts on my blog and had projected SPX 1620 by 2009.

Based on how the pattern is progressing, i think that projection should be fullfilled over the next 3-4 months making a huge top around Oct-Nov 2007.

You are expecting 600+ points run in about 3-4 months?!?

--------

arbman - I hope you realize that was a copy of what NAV said on 7/13/07.

NAV -thanks for the update. Is the X Wave idea still valid in your opinion?

Edited by hiker, 15 July 2008 - 11:37 AM.

[NAV]

After we broke out in June 2006, i wrote my long term thoughts on my blog and had projected SPX 1620 by 2009.

Based on how the pattern is progressing, i think that projection should be fullfilled over the next 3-4 months making a huge top around Oct-Nov 2007.

You are expecting 600+ points run in about 3-4 months?!?

arbman,

Let's not speculate on bits and peices of information and distort it.

It's all here in my last LT update

http://nav-ta.blogsp...re-lt-sell.html

I am not projecting any new highs for SPX. To the contrary i expect this bear market to continue for a long time. But i am expecting a large rally to commence out of the 1170 +/- 20 points area that i wrote in my blog. And i think that should take about 8-12 months to complete. Again, all based on e-waves and other technical measures that i study. TWT.

Hiker,

In my LT update on Jan 19,2008 i said i no longer subscribe to the X-wave theory and updated my count. It's all under that link. Read it.

From my blog

I was working with an assumption that we were in a Primary degree wave B from March 03 bottom. Given that i now have a LT sell and a potentially completed wave pattern, i have to now radically alter my wavecount, in the light of newly presented information. Waves are dynamic structures, which evolve over time. Now there is no way, i can call this structure a A-B-C pattern from the Oct 02 lows, without violating all the channel rules and e-wave time rules and compromising on the structural integrity of the wave pattern. I am not going to do that to justify my bias or to stubbornly prove my original thesis. Instead, i am changing my wavecount, that the wave from oct 02 was a Primary degree wave 1 impulse, with a wave 5 extension. So we in a primary degree wave 2 bear trend at this stage, until proven otherwise. The implication is that the Oct 02 bottom was a cycle degree wave 4bottom, which should not be violated for decades to come.

Edited by NAV, 15 July 2008 - 11:45 AM.

[swinger]

IndyMac is history. Fannie and Freddie are toast. BKX deep down in the gutter. Run on the banks and my money ain't safe there. Someone said even treasuries aren't safe anymore. There are questions on who will bail the Fed, the U.S govt, the treasury.....Now where do i put my money ? Can the news get worse ? Can the fundamentalists get more cocky ? And all these plethora of negative news converging at a technical measured move target ! Hmmmm........

It is what it is until it ain't...the trick is knowing when it 'ain't'.

As I see it, the present situation is...

> ES 1231 and VST has a chance to chew some cud
> ES 1260 and the higher time frames can flip

...under those lines and the bears are still in business (in my opinion)

[arbman]

No no I was speed reading, I corrected immediately as I saw it was just a copy of the previous message. I am used to seeing them in quotes, so I took it literally as a forecast...