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> McClellan, Bull/Bear initiations/moves simplified
diogenes227
post Nov 2 2009, 06:12 PM
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The NYSI down trend continues but some signs of a possible bounce beginning to appear on the NYMO, and VIX and CCI.



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"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.
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diogenes227
post Nov 9 2009, 03:09 PM
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I was hoping to get a NYSI buy signal Friday because that was the one-anniversary of this thread. I thought it would be a good time to end this thread -- end with a buy signal on the exact anniversary of the start in a year in which the market has gone from scary bear to scary bull. Didn't get the Buy Friday so shucks...would have been a pleasant symmetry. However, unless we have a dramatic sell-off into the close today, it will be the BUY today. And of course it will come with most of the indexes overbought on the dailies but so what? The NYSI is only a context for buying the dips or selling the rallies.

Regardless, I'm going to quit this thread today. It has long since become too long and strung out. I think it's been a decent chronicle of the up and downs and twists and turns of this amazing year and I've enjoyed keeping it up. To my mind the NYSI and and NASI remain the clearest, easiest-to-read, indicators of overall market direction there are.

And for aggressive traders, it may take some study and trading experience to use it, but, the McClellan Oscillator itself, I believe, is truly one of the best tools one can have to day and swing trade.

Which bring us to today. The short leveraged ETF basket -- SDS, QID, TWM -- being tracked here with the NYSI signal is currently up barely one percent since the 10/20 sell signal and could go negative on a firm close. It has been up as much as 13 percent (I dumped half at 9 percent and moaned when it jumped back up 12 percent), but once again the short side did not hold much of its profit. What does that say?

Note the SPY chart above. Back when this was a bear market, if the NYMO got overbought it was generally a sell or a short. Now if it gets oversold it is gnerally a buy. That is the way it is and the the way it will be until it isn't anymore (such is the nature of markets). This is the sixth consecutive up day on SPY since the Oscillator put in a low above a low on Nov. 2. The Russel Rippers (the chart below) -- a basket of 3x leveraged long ETFs (TNA, BGU, FAS) which I like a lot -- are currently up 14.5 percent since that Nov. 2nd low above a low on the NYMO. As I said, for aggressive traders, the NYMO is one of the best tools there is...

I hope those who have viewed this thread through the year have enjoyed it and maybe even found it sometimes useful.

Good trading to everyone. smile.gif





--------------------
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.
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Scott-stock
post Nov 9 2009, 11:42 PM
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Diogenes

Please do not quit. This site and your writings have been enjoyable and educational.

Thank you.
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mfrazier
post Nov 10 2009, 08:29 AM
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"Please do not quit. This site and your writings have been enjoyable and educational".


I'll come out of lurking to say I'll second that. Your posts are a living classroom. Thank you.
MF
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edamat
post Nov 10 2009, 09:12 AM
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I second that.
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apprentice
post Nov 10 2009, 03:13 PM
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I third that!


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but neither may you desist from it."

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apprentice
post Nov 10 2009, 03:16 PM
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Oh won't you stay yeh yeh yeh yeh just a little bit longer wub.gif


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RPPVW/SHP


"It is not your duty to complete the work,
but neither may you desist from it."

--Talmud
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diogenes227
post Nov 12 2009, 02:07 PM
Post #128


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QUOTE (Scott-stock @ Nov 9 2009, 08:42 PM) *
Please do not quit. This site and your writings have been enjoyable and educational.

QUOTE (mfrazier @ Nov 10 2009, 05:29 AM) *
I'll come out of lurking to say I'll second that. Your posts are a living classroom. Thank you.
MF

QUOTE (edamat @ Nov 10 2009, 06:12 AM) *
I second that.

Thanks for the posts, guys. My plan was to quit posting on this thread because it's gotten so long and feels cumbersome (does anyone actually read through its entirety anymore? or reference its past? even some newcomer?). When I said I was quitting this thread I did not intend that to mean I was quitting posting completely (this is too much fun), and besides posting is a great check on anyone's personal trading (it makes you think, and forces a focus on exactly what it going on with the markets).

I thought I might start a new thread that tries to be more concise with less history and more timeliness. Or maybe its a new year and it's time to start again? Haven't quite figured out how to do that yet but will probably jump in soon and just see how it goes.

In the meantime, good trading to you and everyone else. smile.gif


--------------------
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx.

I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.
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goflow
post Nov 22 2009, 09:54 PM
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QUOTE
posting is a great check on anyone's personal trading (it makes you think, and forces a focus on exactly what it going on with the markets).

Hi 227!

Couldn't agree with you more.

I hardly lurking around this board. Saw you name then remember you have come visited some of my threads before. I did not know you have been hosting a 13-page-long thread. Very impressive! I'll try to find opportunities to read them now.

Best to you!
goflow, 'Ground Currents' now


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