6 replies to this topic

[CLK]

This looks more like a cup and handle to me. It's hard to find another
top since the start of the bear where we topped, then put in a down
day followed by an inside day up. All my other stuff says this probably is a top,
but if it breaks higher, going to be alot of short covering fuel.

If you find another, let me know.

[mogreen]

The range was established with the 900+point up day a few months ago. We can trade up to 9750 and still go side ways in a large trading range(8000 low).

[humble1]

top?: i don't think so. a POWERFUL rally started on 1/2/09 and is correcting beautifully. i saw the galaxy class idiot jack babbleojian on CNBS a few moments ago. that PERMABULL is now saying a good bottom will take two/three years. nine trillion on the sidelines, much of it fast money, and he doesn't see that any snapback rally will quickly become a buying panic????? maybe he should go back to making subs in the deli downstairs. ™

Edited by humble1, 07 January 2009 - 07:52 AM.

[traderpaul]

top?: i don't think so. a POWERFUL rally started on 1/2/09 and is correcting beautifully.

i saw the galaxy class idiot jack babbleojian on CNBS a few moments ago. that PERMABULL is now saying a good bottom will take two/three years. nine trillion on the sidelines, much of it fast money, and he doesn't see that any snapback rally will quickly become a buying panic?????

maybe he should go back to making subs in the deli downstairs.


™

That was just a lousy dead cat bounce.....Hey we need good earnings.....Not Satyam's cooked earnings.....

[humble1]

how were earnings on the rally into the 1937 high?

[Rogerdodger]

"If you find another, let me know."

Would that really answer your question?
This worldwide economic problem, and the efforts underway to fix it, are in many ways without precedent.

One problem, labeled the Ludic fallacy by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games. This stems from the assumption that the unexpected can be predicted by extrapolating from variations in statistics based on past observations, especially when these statistics are assumed to represent samples from a bell curve. These concerns are often highly relevant to financial markets, where major players use value at risk models (which imply normal distributions) but market movements have fat tails.

Taleb notes that other functions are often more descriptive, such as the fractal, power law, or scalable distributions; awareness of these might help to temper expectations.[4] Beyond this, he emphasizes that many events are simply without precedent, undercutting the basis of this sort of reasoning altogether. Taleb also argues for the use of counterfactual reasoning when considering risk.
The Black Swan LINK

Edited by Rogerdodger, 07 January 2009 - 12:07 PM.

[CLK]

I guess it was . Now where to get short.

Edited by CLK, 07 January 2009 - 03:11 PM.