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IBD Confirmation Day

Started by tuffy88 , Jan 28 2009 07:54 PM

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#1 tuffy88

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Posted 28 January 2009 - 07:54 PM

Today was a Confirmation (or follow through) Day for the S&P500 and the NASDAQ on Day 4 of the rally attempt. S&P500 and NASDAQ both up over 2% on volume heavier than yesterday. Market now in a confirmed rally. I will buy 1/2 of my position in QQQQ's tomorrow. Wait to buy other 1/2 after next Confirmation Day or until market leaders (IBD 100) start to break out on the upside. Will exit the position when the market as measured by the Dow Industrials close below the low of the Day 1 rally attempt or 4 or 5 distribution days in a few weeks time. Haven't checked the exact number of low on day 1 of rally attempt, but think it is about 7950. Have no opinion when that will be. If this a bear market rally it may be soon. Hope not. Charles

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#2 robo

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Posted 28 January 2009 - 08:58 PM

Today was a Confirmation (or follow through) Day for the S&P500 and the NASDAQ on Day 4 of the rally attempt. S&P500 and NASDAQ both up over 2% on volume heavier than yesterday. Market now in a confirmed rally. I will buy 1/2 of my position in QQQQ's tomorrow. Wait to buy other 1/2 after next Confirmation Day or until market leaders (IBD 100) start to break out on the upside. Will exit the position when the market as measured by the Dow Industrials close below the low of the Day 1 rally attempt or 4 or 5 distribution days in a few weeks time. Haven't checked the exact number of low on day 1 of rally attempt, but think it is about 7950. Have no opinion when that will be. If this a bear market rally it may be soon. Hope not.

Charles

Charles,

Thanks for the update and Take Care!

" “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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#3 esther231

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Posted 28 January 2009 - 09:42 PM

Thanks for the update. Please hollar when you see the second confirmation day. Does it have a time frame - like the first one does?

When I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race. ~H.G. Wells

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#4 Islander

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Posted 28 January 2009 - 09:44 PM

For entry the Follow through day is only a confirmation of price movement, but it is not a buy signal as a rule.( They come in all shapes and forms so one can believe what one likes.)

I am very suspicious of today due to the hype on the "bad banks" and the wildly insane house stimulus bill. Nothing has changed and until it does we are likely premature, if not nuts.

I think the whole thing is a house of cards and care is in order not to mention tight stops for any buying. I think a rally is due, but not a trend change, but a bounce.

Best, Islander.

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#5 tuffy88

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Posted 28 January 2009 - 10:32 PM

esther---No time frame for the 2nd confirmation day. Will post if one comes. Islander---It would not surprise me at all if you are right. This may well be a bear market rally. The last buy from late November to this month was. It still produced a 5% profit. This trade might not produce any profit at all of course, but the loss is limited to about 3% if I get in around todays close. And that is with a 1/2 position. Best wishes to you too. Charles

Edited by tuffy88, 28 January 2009 - 10:33 PM.

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#6 traderpaul

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Posted 28 January 2009 - 10:35 PM

Hi Charles, Thanks for the update.....I would buy SPY rather than QQQQ.....The reason is that SPY chart looks better.....You can put in QQQQ and see the difference.....(check out the objective on both)........Here is the link.....

"Inflation is taking place now. Prices may not appear to be rising because they are making packaging smaller. "— Rickoshay

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#7 denleo

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Posted 29 January 2009 - 03:23 AM

So Charles, you are a technician or should I say a system trader, who follows the rules of a certain system. There are thousands of them. Some trade 10 times a day, others trade three times a year. Why is your system better? Why did you pick this one? It is easy to check if your system is good. There are number of ways, but the simplest one is the Sharpe ratio. In your case it is monthly data. Just culculate sharpe monthly over the last 10 years and see if it is over 1.5. If it is, your system is in the top 25% of all managers in the world. If it is between 1 and 1.5, you are in a top 40%. Above 2? You are golden. Top 10%. Below 1? Find another system. Simple, isn't it? Please e-mail me your Sharpe ratio. I am very interested. Send me a message. Respectfully, Denleo

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#8 selecto

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Posted 29 January 2009 - 08:45 AM

T, could you post the last 3-4 years worth of signals off this system. I would like to match them up with price and some stuff. Or, has it been done elsewhere?