Two guys who passionately argued for a rally from the 820-840 levels. Congrats guys.
So far it's been a good bounce. But whether it will turn into a sustainable rally needs to be seen. We are still working against a daily downtrend. Hourly is in a confirmed uptrend. The next pullback on the hourly will tell the story to me - i.e whether to go long or short.
U.F.O and OEXCHAOS
Started by
NAV
, Jan 28 2009 11:10 PM
24 replies to this topic
#2
unosuke
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Posted 28 January 2009 - 11:17 PM
I'd be curious to know from UFO why he sold his TNA early if he was so passionate about the pending rally. Thanks to UFO in advance and good trading.
Current Positions: Long EEV @ 40.29, Long DUG @ 24.66, Long DXD @ 59.62, Long SDS @ 72.70, Long TWM @ 61.84, Long QID @ 48.21, Long FXP @ 20.43, Long SSG @ 43.76, Short XOM @ 69.31, Short AAPL @ 117.52
#3
U.F.O.
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U.F.O.
Posted 28 January 2009 - 11:31 PM
I thought we'd get a pullback off 873 $SPX (50% Fib of the last downmove range) and my intent was to rebuy the dip. After selling TNA I saw that the real fast action on this move was gonna be the banks so I loaded up on FAS. Thx. by the way to both you guys, NAV and unosuke.
Sorry uno. I didn't read your link. That earlier trade? I was just early and got tired of the range at that right inverted shoulder. I had to rebuy on the 26th as the move started.
U.F.O. (long FAS)
Edited by U.F.O., 28 January 2009 - 11:36 PM.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
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#4
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 29 January 2009 - 07:22 AM
Two guys who passionately argued for a rally from the 820-840 levels. Congrats guys.
So far it's been a good bounce. But whether it will turn into a sustainable rally needs to be seen. We are still working against a daily downtrend. Hourly is in a confirmed uptrend. The next pullback on the hourly will tell the story to me - i.e whether to go long or short.
Here's what I've got. There was and is a huge set up for higher prices just from the accumulated pessimism. Market liquidity is improving and it has been showing to me for some time now. I think it's early, yet, and it may be time for a little ebb.
Also, the Best Fade signal was triggered last night, and of course we had the Sell strength signal yesterday.
But this thing is hard to trade. Patterns are "off" somewhat and it takes away some of the confirmation that I rely upon.
My guess here is that we open down, rally again, and run into trouble a couple mre times before 910 is seen.
And, btw, thanks for the atta.
Mark
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#5
humble1
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Posted 29 January 2009 - 08:13 AM
i agree with that!
oex's sentiment stuff and UFO's excellent and elegant (as in easy enough for even me to comprehend) put some steel in my spine just about when i needed it. i have toasted them both, several times: LOL.
(where do i send them the bill for that case of 1982 lafite-rothschild?)
snort, paw, snot: 
™
™
Edited by humble1, 29 January 2009 - 08:13 AM.
#6
eminimee
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Posted 29 January 2009 - 08:16 AM
http://www.traders-t...howtopic=100804
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=13&i=p87629446865&a=89174413&r=8657.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=13&i=p87629446865&a=89174413&r=8657.png
Edited by Teaparty, 29 January 2009 - 08:21 AM.
#7
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 29 January 2009 - 09:06 AM
Interesting. I can buy either case, I suppose.
http://www.traders-t...howtopic=100804
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=13&i=p87629446865&a=89174413&r=8657.png
Mark S Young
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https://book.stripe....1aut29V5edgrS03
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#8
eminimee
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 29 January 2009 - 10:07 AM
es all session fwiw...daily...first test has held the uptrend so far..
[/URL]
[/URL]
#9
eminimee
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 29 January 2009 - 10:34 AM
Why ED's or LD's are a pain...
Sorry to confuse...but these things do do that...never possible to lable the 12345 until after it's broke down or up...this is if yesterday's high was 3 and not 5..Taking out the TL noted would nix this one... but if we got overlap without breaking the TL...it's on. ..
...would work for end of month/beginning of month window dressing..
I'd really like this thing to turn out to be a leading diagonal as I've got a target of 1010 for mid march and had Jan 20th as a significant low..
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=13&i=p75391524721&a=112399825&r=4168.png
Sorry to confuse...but these things do do that...never possible to lable the 12345 until after it's broke down or up...this is if yesterday's high was 3 and not 5..Taking out the TL noted would nix this one... but if we got overlap without breaking the TL...it's on. ..
...would work for end of month/beginning of month window dressing..
I'd really like this thing to turn out to be a leading diagonal as I've got a target of 1010 for mid march and had Jan 20th as a significant low..
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=30&yr=0&mn=0&dy=13&i=p75391524721&a=112399825&r=4168.png
Edited by Teaparty, 29 January 2009 - 10:41 AM.
#10
Iblayz
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Posted 29 January 2009 - 10:54 AM
Tea
I have not had time to do the chartwork and consider the lower timeframes in detail due to business demands. However, I have looked at the SPX daily as hard as I can several times and can see nothing but a corrective, expanded flat there that takes the index (without extension, which could easily happen and trap many) to 891. If that were to happen, it would reinforce the idea of the 30 minute being a leading diagonal with overthrow at the top of five. If you have already posted something like that I apologize, but I have not been able to read a lot of posts the last few days.
Or, in edit, it could make that alternative look real good.....
Edited by Iblayz, 29 January 2009 - 10:56 AM.
