FOMC trade working...now the next play

The market was setup to reverse yesterday's FOMC as I outlined. Now we have another setup on the charts. Yesterday gapped up and did not fill its gap. Today, we gapped down and have not filled the gap. As long as the close < open today, tomorrow should be another good short. Shorting and covering on the close tomorrow has won 58% of the time since 1997. Profit factor of 2 (the wins are bigger than the losers). All this fits in well with the 50% retrace of the decline from early January, the filling of the gap from Jan 14th, yesterday's close > upper Bollinger Band (9 day, 1.1 stdev)...and my COT work is still bearish. D

Nice call D! You getting these set-ups from Altucher's book? Thx, 10

Nice call D!

You getting these set-ups from Altucher's book?

Thx,
10

I have altucher's book.. though I've learned a thing or two, I've come to the conclusion the man is a hack. If he knew how to make $ on wall street, he would still be managing money instead of whoring himself out.

His little day trade gambling tricks were interesting but does not overlay well with black swans that would kick the living crap out of anyone caught in it.

Nice call D!

You getting these set-ups from Altucher's book?

Thx,
10

I do my own work. It's what pays the bills. I've read Altucher before.
Simple ideas to get a beginner's teeth wet. At least he produces
numbers for analysis. Most books just say "look for head and shoulders
patterns" without telling you how often they work, and what the exact
rules are. Without exact odds based on prior history, just how do you
position size effectively?

D

Nice call D!

You getting these set-ups from Altucher's book?

Thx,
10

I do my own work. It's what pays the bills. I've read Altucher before.
Simple ideas to get a beginner's teeth wet. At least he produces
numbers for analysis. Most books just say "look for head and shoulders
patterns" without telling you how often they work, and what the exact
rules are. Without exact odds based on prior history, just how do you
position size effectively?

D

Nice work. I'm extremely interested because you're actually stating metrics/testing instead of the usual 50/50 or seasonality type stuff.

Have you looked at or used any of Lawrence Chan's work?:

http://newsletter.ne...ics-end-of-day/

Edited by 10Shekel, 29 January 2009 - 03:59 PM.

Nice call D!

You getting these set-ups from Altucher's book?

Thx,
10

I do my own work. It's what pays the bills. I've read Altucher before.
Simple ideas to get a beginner's teeth wet. At least he produces
numbers for analysis. Most books just say "look for head and shoulders
patterns" without telling you how often they work, and what the exact
rules are. Without exact odds based on prior history, just how do you
position size effectively?

D

Nice work. I'm extremely interested because you're actually stating metrics/testing instead of the usual 50/50 or seasonality type stuff.

Have you looked at or used any of Lawrence Chan's work?:

http://newsletter.ne...ics-end-of-day/

I believe I read his stuff in a magazine before.

D

Applying my COT work as a directional filter, I've got 74% winners from the pattern and a profit factor over 5. D

Interesting stuff danz. GDP tomorrow.

Applying my COT work as a directional filter, I've got 74% winners
from the pattern and a profit factor over 5.

D

D, very nice calls recently...

Best.