For IT and LT bulls only.....

The longer term bullish case is based on following: - Huge amount of cash on the sidelines - US$8.85 trillion or Fully 74% of US market cap - Surging liquidity - central banks have pumped trillions into the banking system - Low-interest rates - yield on cash and cash equivalents is at a historical low - Declining corporate bond yields- risk appetite is returning - Declining Ted Spread - inter-banking lending rate has declined, a positive sign - Low valuations - various stock markets are trading at very attractive multiples - Horrendous investor sentiment - a contrary bullish indicator - Volatility has peaked - VIX has topped out and is falling - US Dollar rally has ended - bullish for the markets - Global stock markets are making higher lows - sign of base building

the only factor I wonder about is this: how many people 55-70 who were about to or have just retired and have lost 20%- 50 % of their money in their 401k wont be back - ever ? lets say they had 600,000 in the 401K Thet were planning on 5-10% return to draw on. that would give them 30-60 grand a year to pull out. now this first year alone their 600,000 is 300,000 they need to pull out 50 to live so the first year their 600 is now 250 I know this an extreme case but you get the point. will any of those folks EVER be back ? how many have taken loans on the their 401k to meet mortgage payments ? how fast will the money on the sidelines come in - most people know that the should move the money in a little at a time not one big risky move. do young people now have any money to buy stocks ? so that leaves people 30-55 to buy IF they have money anything wrong with my logic ?

Edited by trioderob, 29 January 2009 - 08:44 PM.

then there are the young people coming in. many do like the idea of owning stocks. there are tons of professional people still building enormous wealth. the employment rate is 93%. but your point is a good one and that is why the powers-in-control will work hard to get the stock market back UP. p.s. great recap pdx5!

Edited by humble1, 29 January 2009 - 09:02 PM.

then there are the young people coming in. many do like the idea of owning stocks. there are tons of professional people still building enormous wealth. the employment rate is 93%. I don't necessarily agree...my sampling of non market people has them pulling back, contributing less to their 201k's, others dumped and don't want anything to do with the mkts for awhile. Don't get me wrong, there always will be rallies, but this is "the big one" in our lives. This cash on the sideline thing is mute for years. It will take a long time to get confidence back to this game, especially with so many way underwater. They want to see existing accounts get some back before commiting more. I see lower volumes in general for a long time. First, Wall Street has to stop going down, not the mkt, but the business of Wall Street...not even close to that happening. More and more brokers won't be able to make it, less traders, less office space, you get my drift. And this is all betting the mkt doesn't have another big leg down, which would delay things. Been around for awhile, and don't like to see any of this, not good for biz...but I am a realist. On that happy note...good trading all.

i've got this crazy feeling that we go right back UP tomorrow and maybe close at a new high for the move!

how many people 55-70 who were about to or have just retired and have lost 20%- 50 %
of their money in their 401k wont be back - ever ?

how many have taken loans on the their 401k to meet mortgage payments ?

do young people now have any money to buy stocks ?

so that leaves people 30-55 to buy IF they have money

anything wrong with my logic ?

All good questions, T-Rob.

I will answer your question by asking another question....

Where is the best long term alternative to stocks of quality companies?
Is it real-estate? Precious metals? CD's?

Owning your own house has proved to be a good investment over time.
But rental properties is not something every one is cut out for. My father
owned rental properties and it was time consuming to say the least.

Gold fluctuates quite a bit. Gold traded over $700 30 years ago.
CD's have been a lousy investment for long term, due to inflation.

So, I am sure lot of investors who have large paper losses will be gun shy.
But when they see another roaring bull market, they will find it hard to stay out.

IF YOU ARE NOT IN, YOU CAN"T WIN!

That huge cash on the sidelines won't sit on the sidelines when bull run begins.
And you can rest assured there will be a bull market sooner or later.

Even at current depressed levels, investors in the market for 20 years+ are
quite a bit ahead. What got us in this mess is the borrow and spend mentality.
The current debacle will cure that malady for at least a couple of decades.

i've got this crazy feeling that we go right back UP tomorrow and maybe close at a new high for the move!

H1 are you LT or IT bullish? i don't know why i thought you'd be bailing soon before the next leg down.

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 29 January 2009 - 11:06 PM.

i've got this crazy feeling that we go right back UP tomorrow and maybe close at a new high for the move!

Whats NEW?

how many people 55-70 who were about to or have just retired and have lost 20%- 50 %
of their money in their 401k wont be back - ever ?

how many have taken loans on the their 401k to meet mortgage payments ?

do young people now have any money to buy stocks ?

so that leaves people 30-55 to buy IF they have money

anything wrong with my logic ?

All good questions, T-Rob.

I will answer your question by asking another question....

Where is the best long term alternative to stocks of quality companies?
Is it real-estate? Precious metals? CD's?

Owning your own house has proved to be a good investment over time.
But rental properties is not something every one is cut out for. My father
owned rental properties and it was time consuming to say the least.

Gold fluctuates quite a bit. Gold traded over $700 30 years ago.
CD's have been a lousy investment for long term, due to inflation.

So, I am sure lot of investors who have large paper losses will be gun shy.
But when they see another roaring bull market, they will find it hard to stay out.

IF YOU ARE NOT IN, YOU CAN"T WIN!

That huge cash on the sidelines won't sit on the sidelines when bull run begins.
And you can rest assured there will be a bull market sooner or later.

Even at current depressed levels, investors in the market for 20 years+ are
quite a bit ahead. What got us in this mess is the borrow and spend mentality.
The current debacle will cure that malady for at least a couple of decades.

by the time it's done i think you'll be right, which by my reckoning means this downturn will be much worse than 2000 - 2002 because we sure as hell didn't learn anything that time .

we went from talking about our csco stock at cocktail parties to bragging about our home equity....and this was just a few years later. by the time this bear market has run its course i believe there won't be any cheerleaders for a bull market except for maybe da cheif .

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 30 January 2009 - 01:15 AM.

how many people 55-70 who were about to or have just retired and have lost 20%- 50 %
of their money in their 401k wont be back - ever ?

how many have taken loans on the their 401k to meet mortgage payments ?

do young people now have any money to buy stocks ?

so that leaves people 30-55 to buy IF they have money

anything wrong with my logic ?

All good questions, T-Rob.

I will answer your question by asking another question....

Where is the best long term alternative to stocks of quality companies?
Is it real-estate? Precious metals? CD's?

Owning your own house has proved to be a good investment over time.
But rental properties is not something every one is cut out for. My father
owned rental properties and it was time consuming to say the least.

Gold fluctuates quite a bit. Gold traded over $700 30 years ago.
CD's have been a lousy investment for long term, due to inflation.

So, I am sure lot of investors who have large paper losses will be gun shy.
But when they see another roaring bull market, they will find it hard to stay out.

IF YOU ARE NOT IN, YOU CAN"T WIN!

That huge cash on the sidelines won't sit on the sidelines when bull run begins.
And you can rest assured there will be a bull market sooner or later.

Even at current depressed levels, investors in the market for 20 years+ are
quite a bit ahead. What got us in this mess is the borrow and spend mentality.
The current debacle will cure that malady for at least a couple of decades.

by the time it's done i think you'll be right, which by my reckoning means this downturn will be much worse than 2000 - 2002 because we sure as hell didn't learn anything that time .

we went from talking about our csco stock at cocktail parties to bragging about our home equity....and this was just a few years later. by the time this bear market has run its course i believe there won't be any cheerleaders for a bull market except for maybe da cheif .

ed rader

Ed, dont forget Humble