Let's take off tomorrow and end up on the week 13 points.
S&P Closes up for the week 13 points.
Started by
Rogerdodger
, Jan 29 2009 10:45 PM
3 replies to this topic
#1
Rogerdodger
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#2
inamosa
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Patterns-based Trader and Investor in ETFs and Futures
Posted 29 January 2009 - 10:55 PM
Dow has now closed down 5 months in a row
Very unlikely from a statistical perspective for February to also be a down month...meaning there's a good chance we will eclipse (whatever we close tomorrow at) by the end of Feb
It's a little hard for me to even accept this given my bearishness...but I've got to take it into account
6 down months in a row = very rare (anyone care to look up the odds?)
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
#3
Rogerdodger
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Posted 29 January 2009 - 11:09 PM
February has not been kind for the market.
The 1990's strong bull market had 7 up February's But several of them were very small gains, like doji candles.
Since 2000, only Feb. '04 and '05 have been up.
Per Mike Burk:
Over all years since 1928 February has been 2nd to September as the worst month of the year for the SPX, up 53% of the time with an average return of -0.3%.
Speaking about this week, Mike Burk said:
The good news is:
• The market is oversold going into a seasonally strong period.
Short Term
After 3 consecutive down weeks the market is oversold.
By all measures the period has been modestly positive.
Conclusion
The market is oversold and appears to be developing a positive bottom pattern.
I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday January 30 than they were on Friday January 23.
The 1990's strong bull market had 7 up February's But several of them were very small gains, like doji candles.
Since 2000, only Feb. '04 and '05 have been up.
Per Mike Burk:
Over all years since 1928 February has been 2nd to September as the worst month of the year for the SPX, up 53% of the time with an average return of -0.3%.
Speaking about this week, Mike Burk said:
The good news is:
• The market is oversold going into a seasonally strong period.
Short Term
After 3 consecutive down weeks the market is oversold.
By all measures the period has been modestly positive.
Conclusion
The market is oversold and appears to be developing a positive bottom pattern.
I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday January 30 than they were on Friday January 23.
Edited by Rogerdodger, 29 January 2009 - 11:31 PM.
"Nature's Failure to Function in a 'Predictable Way'... 500 years ago?"
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#4
tommyt
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Posted 29 January 2009 - 11:35 PM
Dow has now closed down 5 months in a row
Very unlikely from a statistical perspective for February to also be a down month...meaning there's a good chance we will eclipse (whatever we close tomorrow at) by the end of Feb
It's a little hard for me to even accept this given my bearishness...but I've got to take it into account
6 down months in a row = very rare (anyone care to look up the odds?)
this fact alone should tell us something...
