Reaction to the GDP

Highlights
The White House has already warned us to expect the very worst for today's fourth-quarter GDP report. Don't let talk about backward-looking data fool you, as conditions in January, based on all the corporate announcements so far this month, point only to more of the same.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP for third quarter posted an annualized contraction of 0.5 percent decline from the previous quarter. Overall for the quarter, weakness was led by a drop in personal consumption and a decline in residential investment. On the inflation front, the GDP price index increased an annualized 3.9 percent boost. Headline PCE inflation was still hot from high oil prices, coming in at annualized 5.0 percent, compared to core PCE inflation which rose 2.4 percent. Economists are expecting a sharp drop in fourth quarter GDP with weakness widespread among components. However, headline inflation is expected to ease.

Real GDP Consensus Forecast for advance Q4 08: -5.4 percent annual rate
Range: -7.0 to -3.0 percent annual rate

GDP price index Consensus Forecast for advance Q4 08: +0.6 percent annual rate
Range: -3.0 to +3.0 percent annual rate
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
NAPM-Chicago
9:45 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET

Edited by Rogerdodger, 30 January 2009 - 12:21 AM.

pretty astounding info on a Cincinnati mall, for Mark - sold for less than 20% of last years average price psf

http://online.wsj.co...0...hs&ru=yahoo

http://www.washingto...ss=rss_business

ed rader

It looks like it wasn't priced into Japan's market.
JapanNikkei 225 -264.74 -3.21%
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days, led by banks and technology companies, as a record slump in Japanese factory production and lower profit forecasts renewed concern the global slowdown is deepening. Toshiba Corp., Japan’s No. 1 chipmaker, and Nintendo Co., which makes the Wii game console, tumbled more than 12 percent after reducing earnings forecasts. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest listed bank, slumped 5.5 percent as government reports indicated the country is headed for its worst postwar recession. Nippon Yusen K.K., Japan’s biggest shipping line, plunged 16 percent after slowing commodities demand in China prompted it to reduce earnings targets.

Early this morning, the Japanese government announced that factory output had fallen 9.6 percent and that joblessness in the world's second-largest economy jumped to 4.4 percent, in the largest increase in 41 years.

The accelerating pattern of grim indicators has led up to a report scheduled for release this morning on U.S. economic performance in the final three months of last year. Many economists think the economy shrank by as much as a 6 percent annual rate.

So will less than 6 be a big upside "surprise"?

Edited by Rogerdodger, 30 January 2009 - 01:31 AM.

as soon as that report is released, all the attention will be about Q1 and Q2. i have heard some projections about those but nothing very recent. also, the uglier this number is, the easier it will be to flood more money into the system. i see the 10 year yield easing upward. the day may come very soon, when the FED wades into that market as heavily as it wants to. bernanke has not signalled a single thing that he has not done. remember: the FED prints the $$$. it has ALL the $$$ it wants. it never gets a margin call; it pays cash. the FED could buy every asset in the country if it wanted to. the FED has just begun to fight and i don't want to be on the other side of thier cannons when they are in a real fighting mood. they NEVER run out of ammo.

Edited by humble1, 30 January 2009 - 03:30 AM.

Real GDP Consensus Forecast for advance Q4 08: -5.4 percent annual rate

Earlier projections were for 4th Q to be somewhat weak, but for the MAJOR contraction to come 1st Q 2009 and beyond. If that's true...........

IYB: the fact that Q1 and Q2 projections are already bleak is bullish. the attention on those projections should be, imho, as to whether they get WORSE. staying the same would be bullish; getting even SLIGHTLY BETTER would be very bullish. a really good short squeeze needs bad news out daily!

Edited by humble1, 30 January 2009 - 04:11 AM.

It looks like it wasn't priced into Japan's market.
JapanNikkei 225 -264.74 -3.21%
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days, led by banks and technology companies, as a record slump in Japanese factory production and lower profit forecasts renewed concern the global slowdown is deepening. Toshiba Corp., Japan’s No. 1 chipmaker, and Nintendo Co., which makes the Wii game console, tumbled more than 12 percent after reducing earnings forecasts. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest listed bank, slumped 5.5 percent as government reports indicated the country is headed for its worst postwar recession. Nippon Yusen K.K., Japan’s biggest shipping line, plunged 16 percent after slowing commodities demand in China prompted it to reduce earnings targets.

Early this morning, the Japanese government announced that factory output had fallen 9.6 percent and that joblessness in the world's second-largest economy jumped to 4.4 percent, in the largest increase in 41 years.

The accelerating pattern of grim indicators has led up to a report scheduled for release this morning on U.S. economic performance in the final three months of last year. Many economists think the economy shrank by as much as a 6 percent annual rate.

So will less than 6 be a big upside "surprise"?

RD this is the main reason I wanted to be flat going into 8:30 Friday. This number at this particular time unlike most of the time could be the short of trigger for a very large move. I rather give up some points and jump on board either way.

Z

pretty astounding info on a Cincinnati mall, for Mark - sold for less than 20% of last years average price psf

http://online.wsj.co...0...hs&ru=yahoo

Well, not really.

The thing has been a white elephant since 89. It was one of my Empire State Building indicators as they revealed the plans for it in 87. It was crazy over the top and out of touch with reality. You and others may remember my comments on it from time to time. Typical of a market top.

The thing has been a poisoned well ever since. Now that price is extraordinarily low, but it's the dumbest mall concept in the greater Cincinnati area. Stands to reason that in this environment it would valued extraordinarily low.

I gotta say, however, that the Bass ProShop there is worth the trip. The problem is that damned little else is, and it's way out there. Much of the natural audience for them has to pass by some decent malls to get there.

I would say that this mall is a perfect example of the possible costs of a really bad, arrogant grandiose business idea. It's still a bad problem 20 years later.

Mark

It looks like it wasn't priced into Japan's market.
JapanNikkei 225 -264.74 -3.21%
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for the first time in four days, led by banks and technology companies, as a record slump in Japanese factory production and lower profit forecasts renewed concern the global slowdown is deepening. Toshiba Corp., Japan's No. 1 chipmaker, and Nintendo Co., which makes the Wii game console, tumbled more than 12 percent after reducing earnings forecasts. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan's biggest listed bank, slumped 5.5 percent as government reports indicated the country is headed for its worst postwar recession. Nippon Yusen K.K., Japan's biggest shipping line, plunged 16 percent after slowing commodities demand in China prompted it to reduce earnings targets.

Early this morning, the Japanese government announced that factory output had fallen 9.6 percent and that joblessness in the world's second-largest economy jumped to 4.4 percent, in the largest increase in 41 years.

The accelerating pattern of grim indicators has led up to a report scheduled for release this morning on U.S. economic performance in the final three months of last year. Many economists think the economy shrank by as much as a 6 percent annual rate.

So will less than 6 be a big upside "surprise"?

RD this is the main reason I wanted to be flat going into 8:30 Friday. This number at this particular time unlike most of the time could be the short of trigger for a very large move. I rather give up some points and jump on board either way.

Z

Me too. This market is throwing me off. I'm seeing the moves I'm expecting but they're not confirming right or they're looking somehow wrong. I can't put my finger on it, except some things that have been very reliable that i use in short term trading have been dead wrong. A LOT. I backed away to watch a bit and it just kept happening. No harm done, but I don't like trading it and so I haven't (and missed some big moves).

M