Edited by ogm, 30 January 2009 - 11:30 AM.
I beleive in the market.
Started by
ogm
, Jan 30 2009 11:29 AM
13 replies to this topic
#1
ogm
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Posted 30 January 2009 - 11:29 AM
Yeah, AMZN, wasn't the greatest idea.. lol. Took me for a ride. looks like they went after shorts there in a big way. 32 mil shares short. 40 mil shares traded already since yesterday.
But.. this is a bear market, so I beleive it will bail me out. I'm going to hold it through this short squeeze all the way into the 30s. Adding here a little.
XOM... the most boring short of the year.. lol. Market will bail me out of there too.
PHM, PG, ALL, PRU, ALD, BAC are working just fine, though.
GOOG.. bleh. Will have to wait that one too.
#2
Slothrop
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Posted 30 January 2009 - 11:32 AM
Well, ogm, you're the first poster this morning to actually admit a loss, so I salute you and commend you. It's amazing to see all the folks here at Traders Talk who never ever make a mistake, who always always get it right. I believe your AMZN and XOM shorts will work out -- might take a few days. I'm still long SDS.
#3
isaac613
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Posted 30 January 2009 - 11:33 AM
I agree with your statement about the market but its better and easier to play the doube and triple etfs. Less to figure out. SKF, SDS and SRS look nice. I think S&P going to 500 this year. First stop should be 750, Then the fun really starts.
#4
diogenes227
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Posted 30 January 2009 - 11:39 AM
Yeah, AMZN, wasn't the greatest idea.. lol. Took me for a ride. looks like they went after shorts there in a big way. 32 mil shares short. 40 mil shares traded already since yesterday.
But.. this is a bear market, so I beleive it will bail me out. I'm going to hold it through this short squeeze all the way into the 30s. Adding here a little.
XOM... the most boring short of the year.. lol. Market will bail me out of there too.
PHM, PG, ALL, PRU, ALD, BAC are working just fine, though.
GOOG.. bleh. Will have to wait that one too.
What do you mean, "all the way into the 30s"?
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#5
ogm
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Posted 30 January 2009 - 11:47 AM
I mean AMZ will be trading in the 30s this year.
#6
10Shekel
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Posted 30 January 2009 - 12:08 PM
OGM,
Your insight of the markets surpasses anyone i've ever followed!
This is a completely irrational market in uncharted waters & indicators are morphing or failing everywhere....
I got lucky that i had long sides to my recent bout with the market.....
If AMZN even comes close to testing 50 again its all good
I still think XOM is going down - this is gonna be a non-oil friendly administration 
Cheers!
Cheers!
#7
ogm
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Posted 30 January 2009 - 12:13 PM
With all these compliments I'm probably dead wrong ..lol.
But the daily SPX chart to me looks like its about to slide to new lows. Very typical setup. Chart is under the constant pressure of the moving averages and keeps erroding. We're testing 8k on the DOW again. Again and Again.
One of these times its not going to hold, and all those buyerrs who have been accumulating here since Octboer will get trapped and start bailing.
I mean we now know the size of the stimulus package, the good bank, bad bank, and that the Fed will do everything they can. And yet we're still here. None of that stuff is lifting the market for more then a day or 2.
Edited by ogm, 30 January 2009 - 12:14 PM.
#8
CHAx
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Posted 30 January 2009 - 12:18 PM
BAC intra day might be bullish. Watch out if they clear 7.10
#9
10Shekel
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Posted 30 January 2009 - 12:26 PM
My only argument would be that we are heading into some monthly seasonality here (first several days of a new month) + stimulus hope/optimism but we'll see if its enough to break the channel?
But i agree ... at some point there will be a confidence snap.
#10
diogenes227
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Posted 30 January 2009 - 12:35 PM
I've traded this stock off and on since its beginning. In fact, one of the best days I ever had trading was in this stock back in the last century. While the guys on CNBC were bitching that "this is insane; this stock hardly has revenues, let alone earnings, and yet Amazon is going open up with a 40 point plus gap today." They were outraged. I, however, had bought a basket of tech stocks the day before including 4000 shares of AMZN and another 4000 of Yahoo, which gapped up 32 points, and I was dancing around my desk. Geez, those were the days my friend...I mean AMZ will be trading in the 30s this year.
The most apropos statement I ever heard about this stock was some guy back then who said "Amazon always goes down just enough to let the shorts in and then it NEVER lets them out again."
So, amid all these compliments (which you certainly deserve, all in all) all I have to say "Watch your butt, there are still cannibals in the Amazon."
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
