COT...

The small specs are still buying. Although my indicator has the final say, I don't see how "they" can get these guys to dump their longs without lower lows. What a freakin mess. I covered all but one swing trade from the recent rally, FOMC trade, and today's short. Looking to cover into "over-sold" on a closing basis. Perhaps under 813. D

The small specs are still buying. Although my indicator has the final say,
I don't see how "they" can get these guys to dump their longs without
lower lows. What a freakin mess.

I covered all but one swing trade from the recent rally, FOMC trade,
and today's short. Looking to cover into "over-sold" on a closing
basis. Perhaps under 813.

D

Really great trading danzman... congrats!

spratman

I was busy today, but was thinking about your trades every time I heard the stockmarket updates. Thanks for sharing.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 30 January 2009 - 09:21 PM.

Hey danz. Congrats and question. I've been pondering your COT suggestion from last week and may have seen a new angle I missed. Keeping it simple and only focusing on the small specs. It seems that it's not so important what side of the market they're on necessarily, but what they do in certain situations when the market starts to go against them. They have a very bad tendency to average down when they're long and average up when they're short....in size. As they're adding to losing positions the market frequently extends their losses. They're on the wrong side of market at the worst possible time and they're not only heavily positioned, but adding to those positions. In short, at the 1st jump in size of small traders losing positions might be the safest bet on the board to fade them. Does this make any sense? U.F.O.

The small specs are still buying. Although my indicator has the final say,
I don't see how "they" can get these guys to dump their longs without
lower lows. What a freakin mess.

I covered all but one swing trade from the recent rally, FOMC trade,
and today's short. Looking to cover into "over-sold" on a closing
basis. Perhaps under 813.

D

Excellent trades danzman. One question: if you're expecting lower prices ultimately based on the COT, why not keep these swing trades open? Or are you covering based on something else?

IT

The small specs are still buying. Although my indicator has the final say,
I don't see how "they" can get these guys to dump their longs without
lower lows. What a freakin mess.

I covered all but one swing trade from the recent rally, FOMC trade,
and today's short. Looking to cover into "over-sold" on a closing
basis. Perhaps under 813.

D

Excellent trades danzman. One question: if you're expecting lower prices ultimately based on the COT, why not keep these swing trades open? Or are you covering based on something else?

IT

Swing trades are swing trades. IT trades are IT trades.

UFO: The answer is no. You're thinking too much.

D

Can you give us a hint? U.F.O.

It's not something as simple as giving extra credence to your indicator(s) that justify positions against the small specs, is it? As in if they're long, like now, a short you would have a high degree of confidence in would be in order if the indicator trips a sell signal. U.F.O.