Worst January on record for stocks DOW -8.84%

Worst January on Record for Stocks...
Stocks wrapped up their worst January on record with a final plunge on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished January down 8.84% on the month. Perviously, the worst January for the Dow had been that of 1916, when it fell 8.64%. Friday, the Dow dropped 148.15 points to 8000.86 after briefly dipping below the 8000 mark. The Dow has fallen five straight months and in 12 of the last 15.

The S&P 500-stock index lost 2.28% Friday to end at 825.88, for cumulative losses in January of 8.57%. Until Friday, its worst January from 1929 onward occurred in 1970, when it lost 7.65%.

Both stock-market indexes are off by more than 40% from their 2007 highs.

CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS from late 2006?

Terry's T Theory:
The Long Range Mega-T Theory and Kondratieff Wave Outlook Discussion
for November 20 2006
I am resummarizing some of my early work based on the very longest range T Theory
which includes my own interpretation of the so-called Kondratieff Wave. This basic
Long Wave concept, in its most primitive form, originated by the Russian
economist Nikolai Kondratieff during the 1920's.
I have redefined his valuable thoughts according to my more detailed T Theory.
What I state in this report is based mostly on my original 1973 T Theory studies
which I believe are the superior way to view his founding work as it might apply
to the equity market.
Of course the most interesting aspect is that we are currently in an overbought
topping pattern that may be ending, and the upside peak in the year 2000 is
a bit higher than the 1929 speculative peak, a possible historic warning.

My major concern is that if the nature of the 40 year lows continues to vary
in an alternating sequence between mild lows and severe
lows, then the next low could be very severe.
This could imply the failure of basic financial institutions and perhaps a non recoverable situation.

I am assuming the current Advance-Decline Line T projecting a September 2007
peak is the most likely candidate for the ninth Ts top date.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 January 2009 - 12:27 AM.

The T in Terry T must stand for time traveler.

The T in Terry T must stand for time traveler.

Right now it seems like it.
He's been saying the market will be nearly cut in 1/2 from here.
I've been waiting for him to be wrong.
I'm still waiting.

I hope he is wrong and I bet he hopes he is wrong too. This is the most depressing time I have ever seen to be a trader, spending most of your waking hours processing all of the news and knowing deep down that there is no real fix to this problem. It makes it double hard if you have kids. A lot of truth in that saying "ignorance is bliss". But it doesn't work for a trader cause we want to know every thing.

Edited by Warren, 31 January 2009 - 01:39 AM.

Right now it seems like it.
He's been saying the market will be nearly cut in 1/2 from here.
I've been waiting for him to be wrong.
I'm still waiting.

When did he start saying it.....?

I can't recall many guru's predicting halving of the market 6-8 months ago.
But then memory is not my strong suit.

When did he start saying it.....?

I can't recall many guru's predicting halving of the market 6-8 months ago.
But then memory is not my strong suit.

Terry did at the December 2007 top, calling for a 35% or more decline!
As posted here several times and on Terry's site, He became extremely bearish at the end of 2007 based on what he saw as a collaspe of the right side of his "T".

December 2007 update:
"the weakening Advance-Decline Line chart readily evident in the chart will begin to roll the market downward into a new long term, 2 to 3 year bear market amounting to some 35% or more in the popular indexes."

January 2008 update:
"This is very dangerous because the S&P down trend is accelerating but has never quite washing out. Based on my 35 years of watching this oscillator I would say its current pattern reminds me of the days prior to the 1987 panic."

The markets have been nearly cut in half since then however, now he's calling for another 50% cut.
And he says those who doubt it are "in denial" because they have never seen the 80 year cycle low since it's a once in a generation event.

"My next update will come Monday January 19 after the close, usually by 5 pm ET. This will discuss my projection of an eventual low around Dow 3500 during the year 2010 using Hurst's "constant width envelopes" concept."

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 January 2009 - 02:10 PM.