January is usually a key indicator for the coming months

After a black 2008 for the most important stock markets around the globe, investors eager for a positive start of the year. The market gave them a unexpected surprise, with the indexes of reference closing the month with a negative balance. Seen as an indicator of what will be the direction of the markets in the year, this fall in January concerns the most superstitious. But more than the statistics, are the uncertainties regarding the state of the economy that are fearing a new year's devaluation of investments in stock market. The January Barometer, one of the oldest statistical benchmarks of grants, see this month as a good indicator of the trend of the year. The instability that dominates the negotiations, makes the first month of this year a bad guide to the behavior of markets in the remaining eleven months of the year. Analysts prefer to look at market conditions. The uncertainty still advises caution. The degree of effectiveness of the various packages of fiscal and monetary policy will determine whether we can reach the middle of the year with signs of economic stabilization or not. If yes, the markets begin to anticipate the recovery time and can compensate, at least partially, the loss of the first half of 2009. If the signs of weakness persist, it is likely that the markets remain in negative territory for much long time. Bears continue dominating the market and it won't be easy to put them out of the game. AC Investor

There is the "January Effect" which holds that as January goes, so goes the year. Depending upon whom you read, the effect is good 50-70% of the time.

If you narrow down to the last ten years, you find that 7 out of the last 10 years as January went, so went the year.

since many january's have big moves, and since january is 8.5% OF the year, suspect there might be a bit of a bias there.