Weekend Update:More Down Side Ahead For...

The stock market reversed one day shy of the 8 day cycle top due early Thursday and fell the last 2 days of the week. The next 8 day cycle bottom is due Monday, but looks like it will come in on Tuesday. Early Monday the stock market should gap up and the gold market should gap down. I have the QQQQ near 28.43 on the gap up and the SPX +9 or 10 points. The price of gold should fall about $11 with GDX testing its Jan 20 top at 32.51. The gaps will be fake out gaps or what is called a "gap and crap". We still have a mid day target of POG 944/45 and GDX in the upper 38 area before all is said and done Monday. Monday is also the 20 day cycle top for gold and the related miners. Coming off the bottom on Jan 15th we have what looks like a daily 5 wave structure, but the internal wave structure is saying something different. I will call the gap down the end of "pseudo" wave 4 with "pseudo" wave 5 coming to the upside. In reality, we made a 3-3-5 affair wave 'a' top Monday and are in wave 'b' with a violent wave 'c' coming to the upside. The rebounding POG will force the shorts to cover early Monday and add fuel to a violent reversal. This I'm sure of. Over all, this is not a wave 5, but a 'b' wave with a violent 'c' wave crash to the down side coming which should finish wave "x" of an x-y-z bullish B Wave bull flag ("y" coming in March and "z" coming in April) with C finishing in May (That should finish a larger A WAVE with B coming in a-b-c fashion into early July [a] and the 2nd/3rd week of November[c]) On the other side of the coin, the gap up on the stock market will be sold with lower prices into Tuesday expected. The QQQQ should test the early Dec bottom near 26.80 and the SPX down into the 765/770 area. There is what looks like a bisection top near QQQQ 32.60 on this coming Thursday, which is also the Uranus/Saturn conjunction last seen on Nov 4th. The 8 day cycle top is due Feb 9th, but can come 2 trading days early. I have a target of GDX 32 by Thursday, so this seems to fit the pattern off a continued inverse relationship of the metals to the stock market. The SPX should take out the Jan 6th top near 950 by Feb 5. The last time we had such a 2 day rally was October 10-14 and then we proceeded to fall generally over the next 28 sessions to new lows (Am I saying we make new lows on March 17? Not sure right now, but could be 'cause that is where we hit a low last year before the run up into May). GDX is primed to rally back to 36 by the full moon of Feb 9th setting up a nice head and shoulders pattern top. Ideally, we go back and take out the last 'c' wave up which started on Dec 5 at GDX 21.20. The perfect window would be Feb 13-17 for a wipe out bottom and the H&S top says Thursday Feb 12 + 1 day (or Feb 13, measuring the distance from the left shoulder to the right shoulder and adding one day on H&S tops gives one the date of the expected low). The signs are there for such a sell off as everyone and their mothers are now touting gold and mining shares. We have 60/61% bulls. Back in October I saw the 8 year cycle bottom come on Oct 24 (it was due on Oct 25 which was a weekend). The next 8 year cycle bottom was due Feb 14-15, but the cycle has shifted back a day. If someone asked me the minimum down side for GDX I would say 23.80 +/- (based on the uptrend line from the October/November lows). The coming February bottom should lend itself to a huge rally into March for the golds so get ready for a rollercoaster ride ahead!!! Have a Great Weekend Everyone!

blu, are you saying QQQQ's $26.80 on Tues. and $32.60 on Thurs.? All in 2 days? U.F.O.

blu, are you saying QQQQ's $26.80 on Tues. and $32.60 on Thurs.? All in 2 days?

U.F.O.

Yes. We are forming a powerful bullish flat. Money flows and other measures will not confirm this new down wave. Nov 21 to Thanksgiving was wave 'a', Tuesday finishes wave 'b' and now 'c' to the up side.

That's a 26.8% ROE in 2 days. QQQQ's would have to rally 13.4%/day to do that. If you bought a 300% ETF you could make over 80% return...in 2 days. blu...I love ya Bro...but I gotta tell ya I'm fading that call. U.F.O.

The stock market reversed one day shy of the 8 day cycle top due early Thursday and fell the last 2 days of the week. The next 8 day cycle bottom is due Monday, but looks like it will come in on Tuesday. Early Monday the stock market should gap up and the gold market should gap down. I have the QQQQ near 28.43 on the gap up and the SPX +9 or 10 points. The price of gold should fall about $11 with GDX testing its Jan 20 top at 32.51. The gaps will be fake out gaps or what is called a "gap and crap". We still have a mid day target of POG 944/45 and GDX in the upper 38 area before all is said and done Monday.

Monday is also the 20 day cycle top for gold and the related miners. Coming off the bottom on Jan 15th we have what looks like a daily 5 wave structure, but the internal wave structure is saying something different. I will call the gap down the end of "pseudo" wave 4 with "pseudo" wave 5 coming to the upside. In reality, we made a 3-3-5 affair wave 'a' top Monday and are in wave 'b' with a violent wave 'c' coming to the upside. The rebounding POG will force the shorts to cover early Monday and add fuel to a violent reversal. This I'm sure of. Over all, this is not a wave 5, but a 'b' wave with a violent 'c' wave crash to the down side coming which should finish wave "x" of an x-y-z bullish B Wave bull flag ("y" coming in March and "z" coming in April) with C finishing in May (That should finish a larger A WAVE with B coming in a-b-c fashion into early July [a] and the 2nd/3rd week of November[c])

On the other side of the coin, the gap up on the stock market will be sold with lower prices into Tuesday expected. The QQQQ should test the early Dec bottom near 26.80 and the SPX down into the 765/770 area. There is what looks like a bisection top near QQQQ 32.60 on this coming Thursday, which is also the Uranus/Saturn conjunction last seen on Nov 4th. The 8 day cycle top is due Feb 9th, but can come 2 trading days early. I have a target of GDX 32 by Thursday, so this seems to fit the pattern off a continued inverse relationship of the metals to the stock market. The SPX should take out the Jan 6th top near 950 by Feb 5. [...]

Im in sync with you, except on the last statement re "950 by Feb 5." imho the bounce will carry to 850 by early Feb, following the assumed drop in the 700's, and 950 (top of "C") by early March.

BTW, that was an amazing call you made last Wed. on the market top/gold spike -- wow !

Edited by beta, 31 January 2009 - 01:28 PM.

That's a 26.8% ROE in 2 days. QQQQ's would have to rally 13.4%/day to do that. If you bought a 300% ETF you could make over 80% return...in 2 days. blu...I love ya Bro...but I gotta tell ya I'm fading that call.

U.F.O.

Fade it then. BTW, that's a 21.6% return in 2 days.

Oh...my bad. I won't fade you then. That's much more doable. U.F.O.

blustar...great call on gold...i noticed you looking for a selloff coming in gold into Feb 14. Also, Chris Carolan has been impressive as you in calling gold. His gold solunar is looking for a rally into Feb 14 followed by a huge selloff into mid March....wondering if your count sees an outcome similar to Carolan. BTW...Carolan website is www.carolan.org thnx and keep the good work up.

I doubt we will take out the bear market 943 high. Historically, most bear market rallies end by Feb 7, according to Flannagan. Looks like we're already rolling to the downside. I would expect a maximum 38.2-50% retracement of the FOMC high. That would give us a rally to 840-850 on the ES. I would love for the FOMC high to be taken out before Feb 7, but don't think that's going to happen.

Edited by kidkoala, 31 January 2009 - 05:14 PM.

blustar...great call on gold...i noticed you looking for a selloff coming in gold into Feb 14. Also, Chris Carolan has been impressive as you in calling gold. His gold solunar is looking for a rally into Feb 14 followed by a huge selloff into mid March....wondering if your count sees an outcome similar to Carolan.

BTW...Carolan website is www.carolan.org

thnx and keep the good work up.

The bottom should be Feb 13. Mid March should see a top not bottom. I think he is inverted