pessimism

everywhere I turned to last week, this weekend nothing but bad news, technically the market is very very weak, all things point downward. That"s what bothers me, it should go down and maybe it will even gap down big monday then reverse? I just have this feeling sometime this month there is going to be a rally that is going to knock the socks off...hell if not then maybe they just flush this out towrds 600

As the captain of the Titanic said just before making the movie:

"This is the most pessimistic crew I've ever worked with."

zman: i've never seen anything like it, and i started chatting at avid shortly after it started in 1996. there were three or four chatters then. i was a ranting bull until the secondary high on 9/1/2000. i had a list of the ugly names i was called for being bullish and for talking back, LOL. that part is not allowed here. but the reams and streams of aggressive and illogical bear posts and dire forecasts are at least a degree higher. i think we are seeing a popular delusion, a madness of the crowd. pdx5 posted a very reasonable and accurate list of reasons to be bullish. they were completely ignored!

Edited by humble1, 01 February 2009 - 03:39 PM.

H1, I will re-post the reasons why LT bullish conditions exist. However my post was not COMPLETELY ignored.
Trioderob, Tommyt, Ed Rader and PrincelyM posted spirited comments.


- Huge amount of cash on the sidelines - US$8.85 trillion or Fully 74% of US market cap
- Surging liquidity - central banks have pumped trillions into the banking system
- Low-interest rates - yield on cash and cash equivalents is at a historical low
- Declining corporate bond yields- risk appetite is returning
- Declining Ted Spread - inter-banking lending rate has declined, a positive sign
- Low valuations - various stock markets are trading at very attractive multiples
- Horrendous investor sentiment - a contrary bullish indicator
- Volatility has peaked - VIX has topped out and is falling
- US Dollar rally has ended - bullish for the markets
- Global stock markets are making higher lows - sign of base building


I have no problem with the majority here or anywhere having opposite opinions.
The big profits are only possible if you take a position against the majority.

Check out this link about surging liquidity..
http://www.glennbeck...icle/198/20816/

Best trading luck to all.

Edited by pdx5, 01 February 2009 - 04:13 PM.

H1, I will re-post the reasons why LT bullish conditions exist. However my post was not COMPLETELY ignored.
Trioderob, Tommyt, Ed Rader and PrincelyM posted spirited comments.


- Huge amount of cash on the sidelines - US$8.85 trillion or Fully 74% of US market cap
- Surging liquidity - central banks have pumped trillions into the banking system
- Low-interest rates - yield on cash and cash equivalents is at a historical low
- Declining corporate bond yields- risk appetite is returning
- Declining Ted Spread - inter-banking lending rate has declined, a positive sign
- Low valuations - various stock markets are trading at very attractive multiples
- Horrendous investor sentiment - a contrary bullish indicator
- Volatility has peaked - VIX has topped out and is falling
- US Dollar rally has ended - bullish for the markets
- Global stock markets are making higher lows - sign of base building


I have no problem with the majority here or anywhere having opposite opinions.
The big profits are only possible if you take a position against the majority.

Check out this link about surging liquidity..
http://www.glennbeck...icle/198/20816/

Best trading luck to all.

the only position i have in this market is long ...

ed rader

I really just hope that the es holds fridays lows...if that happens we should get a decent bounce and maybe just maybe..well you know..

I think it's a matter of relative perspective. Actually, the pessimism, doom and gloom isn't near as pervasive as one might expect given that the worldwide financial system is melting down and effectively insolvent. I'll let everyone else wrangle over the putative impacts of the items in the list from pdx5. I just do my esoteric price and time analysis and go long, short or flat based on the weight of the evidence. I don't get the point of trying to talk the market up or down. Better to let the market do the talking and try to take advantage of what [it] is saying. My 2 cents. Kimston

The P/C ratio suggests further down to come That's the best sentiment indicator, IMO

I think it's a matter of relative perspective. Actually, the pessimism, doom and gloom isn't near as pervasive as one might expect given that the worldwide financial system is melting down and effectively insolvent. I'll let everyone else wrangle over the putative impacts of the items in the list from pdx5. I just do my esoteric price and time analysis and go long, short or flat based on the weight of the evidence. I don't get the point of trying to talk the market up or down. Better to let the market do the talking and try to take advantage of what [it] is saying.

My 2 cents.

Kimston

Absolutely NOTHING wrong with your approach. All depends on your time perspective.
For ST traders and IT traders that approach is probably the right one.

I am mostly a LT trader (investing has gone by the way side) for various reasons. For
LT one has to get a handle on earnings, price levels, politics, and economic conditions.
I am putting money in the market I won't need for 4 to 5 years. What I need before
that will stay in CD's.

i thought that is what a market site is all about: presenting your views and discussing the market. the "cheerleading" charge is . pdx5's list is solid and a needed perspective.

Edited by humble1, 02 February 2009 - 12:18 AM.