Hurst Cycles

I am nowhere near as experienced with Hurst cycles as Airedale was, may he rest in peace, but I would like to post this for the benefit of the board as I know he frequented here quite a bit.

Using Airedale's last phasing, which I believe to be correct, the last two 4.5 year lows were in March 2003 and August 2007. Since the Aug 07 low, we are now 76 and 1/3 weeks along this first 80 wk cycle. Hurst had observed that cycle lengths tend to run slightly longer in bear markets and slightly shorter in bull markets. He also advised to take an average of the last three cycles for estimating the timing of the next low. The average for the last three 80 wk cycles is 76.7 wks. The first 80 wk low off the Mar 03 lows early in the bull market was a bit on the short side. The average of the last two 80 wk cycles is 78.5 wks. Based on this, I expect the next 80wk cycle low to be dead ahead in the next 1 to 2.5 weeks. Allowing for variance, it could be anytime in the next 5 weeks. Not great help for timing trades perhaps, but it does suggest that caution is warrented until you are satisfied that the 80wk low is in (FLD crossings, valid trendline crossings, etc). See chart.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...&listNum=10

I expect volatility to increase as we carve out this 80 wk low and we have already seen this over the past week. For more, see this link:

http://forums.techni...post?id=3254244

Echo

Thanks for that Echo!

I thing your expected low is right on... Fits in with some fib timing for a turn the third week in Feb.

$SPX Hurst Cycles ... Swing Waves board.

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=90831

cheers,

john