A Little Off Topic...But Anyone Follow Sunspots?

There are some significant things going on WRT sunspot cycles. There's a proven short cycle (11 years or something like that) but longer cycles, too. For example, when the English colonists came over and settled Jamestown near Williamsburg, VA, the James River was frozen over and winters were COLD! This is related to sunspot cycles. If you've read Don Coxe he occasionally discusses the sunspot situation and it's LT impacts on WX, agriculture, etc. He has also mentioned them in the context of history. right now the sunspot situation is at a very pivotal point hitorically. The cycle low is and has been in and they are not coming (spot cycle not turning up). Also the cylce low has been very low. (very recent significant ice cap expansion, recent historical winters in England, China, etc). If this cycle low persists for another 2 to 4 months it could mark a major cycle transition. This would mean we kiss all this 'global warming' talk goodbye (won't even get into the religion of environmentalism and global warming). These impacts are more LT and perhaps investable but not really tradeable in the ST context. I just thought I would mention sunspots here to spark any discussion and see if there are any others here that follow or know about them and the cycles along with the ramifications.

There are some significant things going on WRT sunspot cycles. There's a proven short cycle (11 years or something like that) but longer cycles, too. For example, when the English colonists came over and settled Jamestown near Williamsburg, VA, the James River was frozen over and winters were COLD! This is related to sunspot cycles.

If you've read Don Coxe he occasionally discusses the sunspot situation and it's LT impacts on WX, agriculture, etc. He has also mentioned them in the context of history. right now the sunspot situation is at a very pivotal point hitorically. The cycle low is and has been in and they are not coming (spot cycle not turning up). Also the cylce low has been very low. (very recent significant ice cap expansion, recent historical winters in England, China, etc).

If this cycle low persists for another 2 to 4 months it could mark a major cycle transition. This would mean we kiss all this 'global warming' talk goodbye (won't even get into the religion of environmentalism and global warming). These impacts are more LT and perhaps investable but not really tradeable in the ST context.

I just thought I would mention sunspots here to spark any discussion and see if there are any others here that follow or know about them and the cycles along with the ramifications.

The 11 year cycle is a cycle within a cycle - and we are heading into a long period of sunspot minimum and potential solar storm intensity which could send out solar winds which could disrupt our communications networks from time to time as the earths magnetic field gets interrupted and could set us up for a mini ice age. The global warming crap is just that - the suns intensity over the past 20 years has increased and is now decreasing - another cycle. And CO2 has nothing to do with this except in localized areas that are high intensity emission zones such as concentrated industrial areas or where atmospheric inversions occur. I'll have to look up the guys name and an article where they are now discussing the potential for a complete reversal of the earths magnetic field - which occurred during the pleistocene - over 30% of known species of plants and animals became extinct.

Thanks MaryAM....I'm thinking along similar lines based on the sunspot cycle charts (LT) I've seen at several research sites. It's not a done deal yet but it's looking more likely. It will be more evident by mid to late summer.

This site discusses solar activity from time to time and references some of the folks who do primary research.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/

Mark

Thanks Mark...great site. I believe we are nearing the standard dev as we speak. This minimum will likely be the longest of the past 23 solar cycles. Of course, nothing like the Maunder minimum of the 17th century which I mentioned in my previous posts which cause a 'mini-ice age'.

There are some threads on this in the Sanity & Health board.
I remember one scientist who predicted that we would see Canada lose nearly all of it's current agricultural business due to colder temps there!

Sunspots to vanish within 10 years

If you have been wondering why we have been seeing cooler temperatures on the earth as well as other planets...

Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century
September 1, 2008
Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth.

The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.
The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.
According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.

When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.
But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.

In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion.
The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial.
The paper's lead author, William Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory well. He says he will be "secretly pleased" if his predictions come to pass.

But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. On was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.

Meteorologist Anthony Watts, who runs a climate data auditing site, tells DailyTech the sunspot numbers are another indication the "sun's dynamo" is idling. According to Watts, the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate.

This theory was originally proposed by physicist Henrik Svensmark, who has published a number of scientific papers on the subject. Last year Svensmark's "SKY" experiment claimed to have proven that galactic cosmic rays -- which the sun's magnetic field partially shields the Earth from -- increase the formation of molecular clusters that promote cloud growth. Svensmark, who recently published a book on the theory, says the relationship is a larger factor in climate change than greenhouse gases.

Solar physicist Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland, tells DailyTech the correlation between cosmic rays and terrestrial cloud cover is more complex than "more rays equals more clouds". Usoskin, who notes the sun has been more active since 1940 than at any point in the past 11 centuries, says the effects are most important at certain latitudes and altitudes which control climate. He says the relationship needs more study before we can understand it fully.

Other researchers have proposed solar effects on other terrestrial processes besides cloud formation. The sunspot cycle has strong effects on irradiance in certain wavelengths such as the far ultraviolet, which affects ozone production. Natural production of isotopes such as C-14 is also tied to solar activity. The overall effects on climate are still poorly understood.

What is incontrovertible, though, is that ice ages have occurred before. And no scientist, even the most skeptical, is prepared to say it won't happen again.

Sunspot activity of the past decade. Over the past year, SIDC has continually revised its predictions downward.
(Source: Solar Influences Data Center)


Geomagnetic solar activity for the past two decades. The recent drop corresponds to the decline in sunspots. (Source: Anthony Watts)


A chart of sunspot activity showing two prior solar minima, along with heightened activity during the 20th century (Source: Wikimedia Commons)

LINK

Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 February 2009 - 01:15 AM.

Notice that big spike in solar activity in the late 1700's? They were swimming in January's 70 degrees in the shade days. Frankly, I'm much, much more concerned about solar activities effects on climate. Mark

I just spent another couple of hours researching this stuff. I think what's going on now has some real significance. We are at two standard deviations right this moment which makes this the longest and most sever minimum since the "Maunder Minimum" which produced a 50 year mini ice age period. There are currently zero visible spots. If the cycle doesn't turn up soon (by mid summer) it will market a significant change. There is lots of interesting data out there WRT climate and sunspots, too. Interesting times.....

If this continues one would thing ag related stocks would be very lucrative secular investments. We are already in some sort of commodity cycle now and world grain inventories are near multi decade lows. If the cycles don't pick up the WX will respond in the years ahead. The latitude capable of servicing ag uses will drift south as it did dramatically during the Maunder minimum. There was one similar cycle earlier that was just about this severe on the downside and even that had an impact.