The XOM pig is finaly starting to croak

Breaking down out of a rising wedge. Downside momentum starting to pick up. The world is choking on oil as Russia, etc are puking it out of every hole. Remeber that XOM is 5 % of the SPX capitalization. Should be a good drag.

OGM, Did you have a short on RIMM? Seems like an echo of the call you made last year - big drop - fwiw.

OGM,

Did you have a short on RIMM? Seems like an echo of the call you made last year - big drop - fwiw.

No, wasn't short RIMM this time Had a small AAPL short since yesterday morning, but an insignificant position.

Edited by ogm, 11 February 2009 - 01:43 PM.

About 1 more week til the crash low for crude....my WAG. coincides nicely with a stock market 77week low...we shall see

About 1 more week til the crash low for crude....my WAG. coincides nicely with a stock market 77week low...we shall see

I don't know the timing, but DUG is forming a beautiful bullish pre breakout pattern. And XOm is weak, and USO is hitting new lows. So I'm heavily positioned in that sector. I smell blood.

Edited by ogm, 11 February 2009 - 01:50 PM.

I smell nice opportunity here. Some of the Ag names are looking good here. Oil is in bottoming process. Its not going to stay at $35 or $30 for that long. Too many people use oil in the world that the resource is not just going to disappear or be worthless. Its not like we could llive without it. I see it going back to $80 at some point in the future.

I smell nice opportunity here. Some of the Ag names are looking good here. Oil is in bottoming process. Its not going to stay at $35 or $30 for that long. Too many people use oil in the world that the resource is not just going to disappear or be worthless. Its not like we could llive without it. I see it going back to $80 at some point in the future.

People will still use oil, the question is what will people pay for it in the brave new world where no one has cash and countries like Russia pump it out of every hole just to cover the gapping losses in their budgets.

I remember Oil trading at 11 just a few years ago. I'm not saying its going there, but 20s sounds reasonable.

The next question is .. How profitable the oil companies will be with oil in the 20s ? Quite a few of them won't be profitable at all.

All that bullsh*t about neverending global growth was just that.. bullsh*t. It was all hedgefunds buying commodities on leverage. Look how fast it poped. Poof... and its all gone. Peak oil my a$$.

Air fleets are shrinking, new generation of more fficient cars coming. The demand for oil may not be as great as people think a few years from now. Certainly oil price is erroding fast.

And capacity cutbacks is not the reason for prices to go up. It only means there is a lot of spare capacity out there.


Plenty of bulls were hiding out in energies since October. One of the most popular and widely held sectors. I think they are a prime target for a shakeout here. And techs.
Heck, who isn't positive on da sexy energy stocks ?





I'm a little more positive on Ag.

Edited by ogm, 11 February 2009 - 02:12 PM.

I disagree with your assessment. When oil was under $20, China did not use cars. Alot more people were using a lot less of it. Even with the recession and all its thrills, there are alot more people today probably over 5 Billion more than we had in 1999 or 2000. That being said, these people need oil too. Counries like china did not even start driving until a few years back. The recession will not last forever. Also, in the summer the AC's are blasting everywhere. America is not going to just stop living because there is less money. They will just be more cautious on thing like shopping for luxury and things that are not as important. I think bottom for oil might be around $30 but then it will kickstart back on up. I am buying some at $35 if it gets there. Then adding on the way down.

I disagree on the basic premise. I think the world economic activity has been at artificialy inflated levels and now has downshifted for a generation or more. It is likely first we will have many years of "below potential" economy before tsome sort of a balance will be restored. But we're not going to the levels of economic activity of the past 10 years.

there are alot more people today probably over 5 Billion more than we had in 1999 or 2000

Total world population is now about 6.8 billion. It was about 6.0 billion in '00.