Market Signal Update

RF2 IT signal just turned from SELL to Neutral. In this news driven and highly volatile market, I'd trade on IT instead of ST signals. However, currently ST is a BUY.

Edited by redfoliage2, 25 February 2009 - 02:29 PM.

hi red, Things to watch: Crude oil and US Financials (ie. XLF). I added a little XLF today along with USL. I'd buy any weakness in the coming days. cheers, john

hi red,

Things to watch: Crude oil and US Financials (ie. XLF). I added a little XLF today along with USL.

I'd buy any weakness in the coming days.

cheers,

john

long FAS and UCO,TNA

hi red,

Things to watch: Crude oil and US Financials (ie. XLF). I added a little XLF today along with USL.

I'd buy any weakness in the coming days.

cheers,

john

Hi, John: nice trading. I'd use IT signal since ST is too volatile.

Edited by redfoliage2, 25 February 2009 - 04:07 PM.

Your post prompted me to have another look at the VIX to see how much sense I could make of it, mainly because I have a nagging feeling about the S&P500 and yesterdays turn, and some interesting stuff about volitility Unosuke posted yesterday struck a chord with me. This is my take on the VIX at the moment [attachment=9964:vixfib.JPG] The blue moving avarage is the 8 day ema of the average of the open, high, and close. The red is the 32 day ema of the same thing. The lower pane is the RSI, 6 period, and it's 5 day ema, which helps with identifying turn points. Tha main pane has my usual series of fibonacci overlays to try to identify the most significant/support resistance levels. It looks to me that yesterday we pushed toward the central pivotal support/resistance level, and today we pushed onto it, which could explain the late volitility. The back kiss/cross on the MAs has not really resolved itself yet. Either way the next few sessions look tough.

Your post prompted me to have another look at the VIX to see how much sense I could make of it, mainly because I have a nagging feeling about the S&P500 and yesterdays turn, and some interesting stuff about volitility Unosuke posted yesterday struck a chord with me.

This is my take on the VIX at the moment

[attachment=9964:vixfib.JPG]

The blue moving avarage is the 8 day ema of the average of the open, high, and close. The red is the 32 day ema of the same thing.
The lower pane is the RSI, 6 period, and it's 5 day ema, which helps with identifying turn points.
Tha main pane has my usual series of fibonacci overlays to try to identify the most significant/support resistance levels.

It looks to me that yesterday we pushed toward the central pivotal support/resistance level, and today we pushed onto it, which could explain the late volitility. The back kiss/cross on the MAs has not really resolved itself yet. Either way the next few sessions look tough.

VIX is turning south but still pretty high. The actual intra day price swings are dramatic. But market is doing well today with a 1% pullback after a 4% up day. It's telling something different from a few days ago.

Edited by redfoliage2, 25 February 2009 - 05:29 PM.

VIX is turning south but still pretty high. The actual intra day price swings are dramatic. But market is doing well today with a 1% pullback after a 4% up day. It's telling something different from a few days ago. [/quote] It's also a positive that the HOD and the LOD today is both higher than those yesterday. .......

Edited by redfoliage2, 25 February 2009 - 05:56 PM.

hi Red, I could have expressed myself a bit better before. Perhaps what I should have said is that the prior environment was one where the Vix was clearly rising, or at least stubbornly refusing to go down, and we had a back kiss or cross up on the moving averages. We are now in a situation where the Vix is above the big red line, and although it has descended to it, it has stopped at it. The moving average situation is unresolved, and despite the fact that the RSI (6) tells me we turned a corner yesterday, I feel I need further convincing. All in all I agree with your position. I am in neutral for the moment