Jump to content



Photo

Parallels to 1929 crash are


  • Please log in to reply
5 replies to this topic

#1 Tor

Tor

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,647 posts

Posted 25 February 2009 - 07:27 PM

JUst from an impartial point of view google 1929 crash and read about what happened. The similarities are truly uncanny! Overleverage, debt, banks problems etc etc. The list goes on. The difference now is unprecidented policy response, so maybe the decline can be resisted to some extent, but can never be avoided IMO. "you can beat a stock, but you cant beat the stock market" Livermore. If the parallel continues, then we fall but another 50%, the true devastating part of this decline!!! I hope steps are taken to prevent this.
Observer

The future is 90% present and 10% vision.

#2 danzman

danzman

    Member

  • Traders-Talk ~
  • 908 posts

Posted 25 February 2009 - 09:41 PM

JUst from an impartial point of view google 1929 crash and read about what happened.

The similarities are truly uncanny!

Overleverage, debt, banks problems etc etc. The list goes on.

The difference now is unprecidented policy response, so maybe the decline can be resisted to some extent, but can never be avoided IMO.

"you can beat a stock, but you cant beat the stock market" Livermore.

If the parallel continues, then we fall but another 50%, the true devastating part of this decline!!!

I hope steps are taken to prevent this.


The US gov. is effectively paying debt with more debt. Reminds me of a
Ponzi scheme. The rest of the world doesn't seem to be in any better shape.

D
I don't make predictions, I just react.

#3 rkd80

rkd80

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,385 posts

Posted 25 February 2009 - 09:44 PM

There are notable differences especially in how the Fed is handling the money supplies, in fact Ben is doing the exact opposite of what the Fed of 29 did. Whereas they raised discount rate and destroyed liquidity, Ben injected our economy with cheap money in buckets. Also the 29 market was insanely overvalued, perhaps similar to the market of 2000, but not that of 2008. People desperately trying to making comparisons between the two time periods will certainly find similarities, but the differences are profound.
“be right and sit tight”

#4 nimblebear

nimblebear

    Welcome to the Dark Side !

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,062 posts

Posted 26 February 2009 - 01:09 AM

There are notable differences especially in how the Fed is handling the money supplies, in fact Ben is doing the exact opposite of what the Fed of 29 did. Whereas they raised discount rate and destroyed liquidity, Ben injected our economy with cheap money in buckets.

Also the 29 market was insanely overvalued, perhaps similar to the market of 2000, but not that of 2008. People desperately trying to making comparisons between the two time periods will certainly find similarities, but the differences are profound.


actually ben needs to do exactly what they did in 1929. not the opposite. he causes are the exact opposite. :lol:
OTIS.

#5 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,120 posts

Posted 26 February 2009 - 02:03 AM

JUst from an impartial point of view google 1929 crash and read about what happened.

The similarities are truly uncanny!

Overleverage, debt, banks problems etc etc. The list goes on.

The difference now is unprecidented policy response, so maybe the decline can be resisted to some extent, but can never be avoided IMO.

"you can beat a stock, but you cant beat the stock market" Livermore.

If the parallel continues, then we fall but another 50%, the true devastating part of this decline!!!

I hope steps are taken to prevent this.

Might want to take a look at the 1937-1938 period instead of '29 or even from the '37 to '42 period for some parallels...

Historic Parallels

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#6 Tor

Tor

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,647 posts

Posted 26 February 2009 - 06:09 AM

JUst from an impartial point of view google 1929 crash and read about what happened.

The similarities are truly uncanny!

Overleverage, debt, banks problems etc etc. The list goes on.

The difference now is unprecidented policy response, so maybe the decline can be resisted to some extent, but can never be avoided IMO.

"you can beat a stock, but you cant beat the stock market" Livermore.

If the parallel continues, then we fall but another 50%, the true devastating part of this decline!!!

I hope steps are taken to prevent this.

Might want to take a look at the 1937-1938 period instead of '29 or even from the '37 to '42 period for some parallels...

Historic Parallels


Overlay the NYSE with Japan....you willbe enlightened!

Its a near perfect correlation. We are due for a bounce anytime now.

Northing will stop the US foliwing Japan IMO.
Observer

The future is 90% present and 10% vision.