long porky

750 and change es stop on the cash lows. Couldnt post earlier had to go out to dinner down here and the wife would of... well you know . something is up on currencies, metals, and oil etc I think guys. The tape is looking like an IT trend change on all this...Or maybe it was this killer local beer I had :bowrie: p.s. Selcto we are heading there in around and Puntarenas/Tierra del fuego in about a week. Jennifer laughed big time when she read the post card line that was funny she enjoyed it as I did. RD that was funny on the 500 billion line. Loved it. Z

something is up on currencies, metals, and oil etc I think guys. The tape is looking like an IT trend change on all this...Or maybe it was this killer local beer I had :bowrie:

I know what you mean, Z....

something is up on currencies, metals, and oil etc I think guys. The tape is looking like an IT trend change on all this...Or maybe it was this killer local beer I had :bowrie:

I know what you mean, Z....

Don


stops moved to entry now..... well better go for the night before I get

Z

zoropb & IYB I believe I understand that you folks are very short term bullish at least the S&P. I assume that Z at least is probing on the long side. The reason I ask is because it surprises me based on my take on your profiles and trading methods. Would you gentlemen mind sharing with me (therefore us) your basic reasoning? Trust me, I do not ask because I disagree. I'm just surprised. Also, although I know neither of you generally predict, would you mind sharing your best guess on the upside. Thanks.

Edited by sjj, 26 February 2009 - 10:43 PM.

Zoropb has his targets listed at the bottom of his post.

zoropb & IYB

I believe I understand that you folks are very short term bullish at least the S&P. I assume that Z at least is probing on the long side. The reason I ask is because it surprises me based on my take on your profiles and trading methods. Would you gentlemen mind sharing with me (therefore us) your basic reasoning? Trust me, I do not ask because I disagree. I'm just surprised.

Also, although I know neither of you generally predict, would you mind sharing your best guess on the upside. Thanks.

I'll do my best. I'm currently flat, having taken a long probe or two that yeilded basically nothing so far. We are currently just one good upday away from a " buy signal" which will indicate that a true IT uptrend is then underway. That's because there are two basic conditions to what I use to produce that signal, and I have observed that when they both fall into place, then a true trend change (IT uptrend in this case) is underway- at least according to how I do things. Those are:

1. Positive divergence in mometum vs price as price takes out former benchmark
2. A 7 of 7 SS crossover to the buy side indicating momentum has turned upward

Condition 1 indicates downside momentum has disapated; Condition 2 indicates that the direction of momentum has turned upward. Together they define the trend change.

Currently condition number 1 is giving a strong indication of impending change, with price having tested or broken (depending on which average one considers) the benchmark Nov 2008 low, and momentum (NAMO, NYMO, Net advances on NYSE and COMPQ, bullish percentages, and dozens of other measures) holding HIGHER readings across the board versus Oct 2008 or Nov 2008 lows. Condition 1 in place.

Condition 2 is very close to completing, with 6 of 6 having crossed positive earlier in the week. All it will take to produce a 7 of 7 SS buy signal will be one strong upday. Then we'd have condition 2 complimenting condition 1, and together they would produce a full blown IT uptrend signal according to my trading/timing methods.

When will that occur? I don't know. Tomorrow, next week, later? I really don't know. But I wait and watch, and will move in aggressively when that signal occurs.

I don't try to project price or time targets for IT moves (though I've never seen anyone better than Z at doing exactly that)- I just try to trade in sych with the trend, and stay alert to the change in trend that always ultimately comes. But when I use the term IT, I refer to trends that run typically fom about 2-6 months (not days).

Fwiw. Just how I look at things. Best, D

IYB, Many thanks for taking the time to respond.

zoropb & IYB

I believe I understand that you folks are very short term bullish at least the S&P. I assume that Z at least is probing on the long side. The reason I ask is because it surprises me based on my take on your profiles and trading methods. Would you gentlemen mind sharing with me (therefore us) your basic reasoning? Trust me, I do not ask because I disagree. I'm just surprised.

Also, although I know neither of you generally predict, would you mind sharing your best guess on the upside. Thanks.

I'll do my best. I'm currently flat, having taken a long probe or two that yeilded basically nothing so far. We are currently just one good upday away from a " buy signal" which will indicate that a true IT uptrend is then underway. That's because there are two basic conditions to what I use to produce that signal, and I have observed that when they both fall into place, then a true trend change (IT uptrend in this case) is underway- at least according to how I do things. Those are:

1. Positive divergence in mometum vs price as price takes out former benchmark
2. A 7 of 7 SS crossover to the buy side indicating momentum has turned upward

Condition 1 indicates downside momentum has disapated; Condition 2 indicates that the direction of momentum has turned upward. Together they define the trend change.

Currently condition number 1 is giving a strong indication of impending change, with price having tested or broken (depending on which average one considers) the benchmark Nov 2008 low, and momentum (NAMO, NYMO, Net advances on NYSE and COMPQ, bullish percentages, and dozens of other measures) holding HIGHER readings across the board versus Oct 2008 or Nov 2008 lows. Condition 1 in place.

Condition 2 is very close to completing, with 6 of 6 having crossed positive earlier in the week. All it will take to produce a 7 of 7 SS buy signal will be one strong upday. Then we'd have condition 2 complimenting condition 1, and together they would produce a full blown IT uptrend signal according to my trading/timing methods.

When will that occur? I don't know. Tomorrow, next week, later? I really don't know. But I wait and watch, and will move in aggressively when that signal occurs.

I don't try to project price or time targets for IT moves (though I've never seen anyone better than Z at doing exactly that)- I just try to trade in sych with the trend, and stay alert to the change in trend that always ultimately comes. But when I use the term IT, I refer to trends that run typically fom about 2-6 months (not days).

Fwiw. Just how I look at things. Best, D

got stopped out overnight

Don checks in da mail bud!

Warren besides looking at indicators for say the SPX. I look at many other markets and see how they all relate with each other. When some markets that were in sync or perfectly opposite start diverging something is up. When many start diverging more and acting even stranger then a bigger trend change is close. I wont own the SPX overnight unless there is a tight stop or at entry. I will go into the trade set it lower than once I get a lead bring it up to entry. That is my style for ST trades. I think the SPX is very very overvalued at 740 and if standard and poors is now reporting 35 for the index this coming year heck fair value based on a 15 pe is 475 and we do not end secular bear markets at those levels more like 7 !!! Si I basically day trade it only. you can say I am a super bear.
I do not mind owning in IT terms things that I believe are extremely cheap as in Grains or oil. Specially grains a I see this as the #1 risk reward for next 5 years. Also based on the very near IT top in the dollar perhaps today. These two are silly cheap.

Z