If there is one person who can take credit for the deflationary argument...

it is Bob Prechter. Not only did he make a compelling case for a deflation in his book "Conquer the crash", but also when the whole world was screaming hyperinflation, he was the lone wolf pounding the table on deflation, the last few years. Prechter is probably one of the worst market timers out there IMO, but he was spot on, on his deflationary theory. No question about it.

My clock is stuck at 1. It will be right in 44 minutes and again in 12 hours and 44 minutes.

My clock is stuck at 1. It will be right in 44 minutes and again in 12 hours and 44 minutes.

Remember, i was talking about deflation and not markets. When it comes to markets, your clock wins

it is Bob Prechter. Not only did he make a compelling case for a deflation in his book "Conquer the crash", but also when the whole world was screaming hyperinflation, he was the lone wolf pounding the table on deflation, the last few years. Prechter is probably one of the worst market timers out there IMO, but he was spot on, on his deflationary theory. No question about it.

Deflation as we know it (circa 1930's) is improbable. Back then we were on
gold standard for printing money, meaning it was required that Fort Knox have
"x" ounces of gold for every dollar bill printed. The only way for government to
"spend" excess money was by borrowing, if there were willing and able lenders.

Today, the government can snap fingers and print Trillions of dollars to
"spend". By definition deflation has lack of cash to spend. I don't see how
that is possible now. If for example the government decides to pay off
all mortgages in foreclosure, voila....no more foreclosures. House prices
stabilize and begin their upward spiral again!

Edited by pdx5, 27 February 2009 - 12:25 AM.

it is Bob Prechter. Not only did he make a compelling case for a deflation in his book "Conquer the crash", but also when the whole world was screaming hyperinflation, he was the lone wolf pounding the table on deflation, the last few years. Prechter is probably one of the worst market timers out there IMO, but he was spot on, on his deflationary theory. No question about it.

Gene Inger not only predicted deflation, but he called the top of the peak in the market at 1590 and expected an epochal decline. He also called the bottom of the last major decline in '02.

My clock is stuck at 1. It will be right in 44 minutes and again in 12 hours and 44 minutes.

it is Bob Prechter. Not only did he make a compelling case for a deflation in his book "Conquer the crash", but also when the whole world was screaming hyperinflation, he was the lone wolf pounding the table on deflation, the last few years. Prechter is probably one of the worst market timers out there IMO, but he was spot on, on his deflationary theory. No question about it.

Deflation as we know it (circa 1930's) is improbable. Back then we were on
gold standard for printing money, meaning it was required that Fort Knox have
"x" ounces of gold for every dollar bill printed. The only way for government to
"spend" excess money was by borrowing, if there were willing and able lenders.

Today, the government can snap fingers and print Trillions of dollars to
"spend". By definition deflation has lack of cash to spend. I don't see how
that is possible now. If for example the government decides to pay off
all mortgages in foreclosure, voila....no more foreclosures. House prices
stabilize and begin their upward spiral again!

That's what Bernanke said in his Nov 2002 speech as well. I am not sure, if he's so sure about it anymore

Saying Prechter gets credit for anything is kinda like saying Humble gets credit for being bearish in 2003. I don't give Prechter credit for anything. He was wrong for years, about the market, and about deflation. IT

Not meeting predictions has nothing to do with how good you are in the market. Making money does. Not by whoring yourself, but by actually making $ in it.. consistently, over time.

the ASTRO people were the BEST at the timing of all this, including the deflationary pressures coming as Pluto entered capricorn (january of 2008). ray merriman, for one and a top financial astrologer, was spot on. he repeatedly said, for years, not to expect the big trouble until then.