No fear in this market

There is no fear from the bears of the market going up. I have not seen such complacency in my life time from the bears. We rally, they short more and we need to see some bearish fear. I mean a real move up and I think we may get that this today. We shall see what happens.

Good point. We need a fearometer. With rankings of fear. Nail biting. Pee pants. Scared poopless. Heavy drinking. Two packs a day instead of 1. When the vix hit its high I did bite my nails but I always do that. But I do remember the 87 crash. Now that was some fear. Very exciting day. We havent had a day like that in a while. We need to lose 1500 to 2000 dow points in 1 day and I bet you need an underwear change or 2. We've already had suicides and such. What more should we look for?

There is no fear from the bears of the market going up. I have not seen such complacency in my life time from the bears. We rally, they short more and we need to see some bearish fear. I mean a real move up and I think we may get that this today. We shall see what happens.

When we were at 780 you were giving us bears reasons why we should not be short and how there was an imminent melt-up to 850. Now we below 700 and yet there's no fear on your part. So why should those who have been right be fearful when those who have not been are not ?

EVERY Bear market has a rip-snortin', tear yer head off rally. Or two. Or three. Or more. That's something to keep the Bears honest and keep the Bulls hoping. Trend followers have been right and have been rightly rewarded. There's always something to make it a bit more challenging. I'm STRONGLY advising everyone to watch for a change up. Say this gap this morning. It "ought" to get filled. If we gap and go, that would be your obvious sign that something has changed. If not that, watch for something else. If "something changes", you don't want to be caught short. I'm watching volume like a hawk. It has to confirm any buy signal for me to take it. I will, buy every signal that is confirmed by volume.

EVERY Bear market has a rip-snortin', tear yer head off rally. Or two. Or three. Or more.

That's something to keep the Bears honest and keep the Bulls hoping. Trend followers have been right and have been rightly rewarded. There's always something to make it a bit more challenging.

I'm STRONGLY advising everyone to watch for a change up. Say this gap this morning. It "ought" to get filled. If we gap and go, that would be your obvious sign that something has changed. If not that, watch for something else.

If "something changes", you don't want to be caught short.

I'm watching volume like a hawk. It has to confirm any buy signal for me to take it. I will, buy every signal that is confirmed by volume.

Mark,

If i were you, and could must up some bearish courage , i would short any hourly rejection from SPX cash 712. If not, i would wait for a rejection at SPX 735. Only a move above SPX 751 and a pullback will cause me to think about longs. That's speaking objectively. Fear (of whatever) has no place in trading.

Edited by NAV, 04 March 2009 - 09:14 AM.

SPX has touched the bottom of the channel from 1/5. The regression line runs through 740 soon on its way down. A correction from 690 to 740 max is a reasonable expectation.

I am still looking for 850 and I think it could get here pretty quickly. Shorting has been overdone.

I figured yesterday that we were close to a low but that we weren't quite there yet. Does anyone remember what happens when I think we're close to a low but not there yet?

Isaac, getting through that 753 jam on the long side will be very tough.

The ORANGE trend lines tell where the tough to cross price levels are. [attachment=10078:spx_3_4_9.png] mss