My take on how this market should be traded..

I am not someone who believes in fractals. I do however, believe that similar setups have a high probability of acting in a similar manner. That is to say, similar setups reflect similar market conditions; net position of traders/market participants, relative liquidity, and sentiment. I'm most definately not saying that someone should look for a similar price action on another chart and trade it based on their fractal. I am simply pointing out another setup, on a different time frame, that I think is a more probable outcome than the alternatives. I am not saying it will happen in the exact same manner or the same magnitude.

As a trader it is simply my goal to find reliable setups and manage risk. I think this is an appropriate area to be trying shorts.


SPX weekly:







SPX daily, same setup different decade:






SPX daily result:








I had some other comments but I am out of time. Graphs are small, sorry did this on my laptop. I may not get a chance to complete my thoughts later but I didn't want to just erase it all either....

One quick comment. I wanted to annotate the charts but I didn't have the chance, ignore those red lines. I'm looking at price in relation to BB bands, number of periods, and indicators. Indicators need to be sufficiently overbought and price needs to be significantly into the BB bands before I am even interested in counter-trend.

what is the time period of the second chart please?

what is the time period of the second chart please?

Daily.




Sunday's remaining thoughts:

I have the setup I need on all time frames except the hourly. <--- I wanted to talk about this over the weekend but I ran out of time. I almost had it Friday morning and this morning (the hourly is refusing to roll). So now I am in the position of managing my risk, to see if I will get follow through. Since I did not get follow through, I am looking for confirmation from my 120 minute time frame that trade is over. I suspect I will be vindicated tomorow, but I will trust indicators because they are right more often than my opinion . Trade safe.