ES update...

ES update… A trending bull market that is the ‘real deal’ will not close below rising long-term trend support, which is presently at 964. Any subsequent close below that line is a failure and a long-term sell. The bullish goal in this situation is to carefully manage a new trade entry until long-term trend support rises above the initial entry price--and then to use that rising trailing stop to lock in profit and to ride the long-term bull with minimal risk. The ideal long-term entry was right at 964 on the breakout (in my opinion). One never knows where a trade is going to ultimately go at the time of entry—so just have to buy the ticket in the direction of the trend when the risk/reward ratio is right and then take the ride to see where it goes. If the market turns and heads south and 964 is violated to the downside—no big deal since it would represent a breakeven entry for an ideal trade and yield an opportunity to reverse to the bearish side (for LT). Best to look at things just one bar at a time (in my opinion) and try not to anticipate anything other than the next target. Under 964, and things begin to change, but for now it is a new bull market until/unless support begins to fail. After weeks of intense rallying since the pullback to ES 864 area support blastoff in early July, it is not unreasonable to expect a pullback. If/when one comes, 964 is the key (in my opinion) for classifying the long term…bearish below and bullish above. Next short-term and intermediate confirmed support area is around 940 but if that failed to hold, then primary trend support is currently around 930 and 900, respectively—below which the trends would flip back to fully-bearish. Next upside targets for continued rally are at 990-1000 and then around 1060-1070 areas. Ideal trade stops advance to 964 for partials on ST and IT timeframes (see previous update below) locking in +75 points. …my .02 -----previous update posted 7/23/09------- ES has now reached LT primary trend resistance line at 964. This is a key line (in my opinion) as it delineates the upper limit of a long-term bear market from the start of a new long-term bull market. Net gain for covering last remaining short partials from the initial ideal long-term bearish entry at 1424 is +460 points. New ideal LT (long) position is established at 964 with a breakeven protective stop at that number. Ideal IT & ST trade entry from 889 is now >80 points with trailing partial profit stops sitting at 941—locking in 52 points of profit. Above 964 and the LT bear market is finished (in my opinion). A pullback below the new long entry there would trigger a stop/reversal, however. The trick is to come away from 964 on the right side of the new trend…bullish above—and back to LT bearish below. Powerfully trending LT bull markets typically ride rising short-term support (which is currently at 918 area) after the first pullback from the initial breakout. This current move is extended from that support—so on the lookout for signs of an eventual swing sell signal and then a follow-up trigger to begin snugging up existing partials profit stops. This LT resistance area has been my often-mentioned bear market rally target since the March lows. Rather than trying to top pick, however, the best strategy (in my opinion) is to continue riding the trends that exist (all timeframes are now bullish) and then waiting for a confirmed LT trend sell signal before considering the short side.

The last time you posted I pointed out that 964 was too close to use as a stop (in my opinion) for a LT trade. You didn't respond to that. But sure enough, the next day the ES took your 964 out...and then promptly rebounded back above 964. Now, I'm not sure how you manage this 964 business. If you have the stop in you were gone Friday. If you didn't have the stop in it's obviously not a break even stop. If you got stopped and then re-purchased it above 964, it would be interesting to know how you did that. These numbers do seem to have importance. But again, how you manage your trading around these numbers is an entirely different question. Perhaps you could add some detail on that particular issue. By the way, I still think 964 is too close to use as a stop. If it's truly a long term trade I would think the trade could stand a wider stop than that. IT

The last time you posted I pointed out that 964 was too close to use as a stop (in my opinion) for a LT trade. You didn't respond to that. But sure enough, the next day the ES took your 964 out...and then promptly rebounded back above 964.

Now, I'm not sure how you manage this 964 business. If you have the stop in you were gone Friday. If you didn't have the stop in it's obviously not a break even stop. If you got stopped and then re-purchased it above 964, it would be interesting to know how you did that.

These numbers do seem to have importance. But again, how you manage your trading around these numbers is an entirely different question. Perhaps you could add some detail on that particular issue.

By the way, I still think 964 is too close to use as a stop. If it's truly a long term trade I would think the trade could stand a wider stop than that.

IT

..."The trick is to come away from 964 on the right side of the new trend".

I now only post 'ideal trades' for the very reason that your post alludes. There is always going to be some dude out there that makes it his mission to attack the messenger--rather than just reading the message.

I post my numbers for folks to consider and they can take 'em or leave 'em...and, of course, are worth exactly what you paid for them. How people manage their own trade entry/exit is their own business (as is mine) and specific questions about personal trade management are really the realm of a certified financial adviser (of which, I am not).

ES pulled back to the 964 line I mentioned and tested breakout support. Perfectly normal to do that.

i see distribution starting at 10:00 today... bringing ES back down below the 7/23 high of 976.50... ES is trying to test that level from below now (on very low volume).

While I appreciate Index Traders question as a valid one, I also appreciate Swinger's response and believe the numbers are a very useful tool guide, that depending on how they are employed, can help with risk management and with staying on the right side of the different trends. I hope the posts continue. I missed them.

While I appreciate Index Traders question as a valid one, I also appreciate Swinger's response and believe the numbers are a very useful tool guide, that depending on how they are employed, can help with risk management and with staying on the right side of the different trends. I hope the posts continue. I missed them.

Index Trader is one of the good guys and I understand his intent.

The reason I post is not to brag about my own personal trades--but rather, to bring something to the party for consideration about risk management and a sound tactical trading strategy. Best way for me to do that is to point out 'ideal trades' (in my opinion) which may or may not reflect my actual personal positions--but at all times do reflect where they should be in a perfect world.

While I appreciate Index Traders question as a valid one, I also appreciate Swinger's response and believe the numbers are a very useful tool guide, that depending on how they are employed, can help with risk management and with staying on the right side of the different trends. I hope the posts continue. I missed them.

Index Trader is one of the good guys and I understand his intent.

The reason I post is not to brag about my own personal trades--but rather, to bring something to the party for consideration about risk management and a sound tactical trading strategy. Best way for me to do that is to point out 'ideal trades' (in my opinion) which may or may not reflect my actual personal positions--but at all times do reflect where they should be in a perfect world.

very well stated...I for one look forward to ur posts...thanks

Index Trader is one of the good guys and I understand his intent.

The reason I post is not to brag about my own personal trades--but rather, to bring something to the party for consideration about risk management and a sound tactical trading strategy. Best way for me to do that is to point out 'ideal trades' (in my opinion) which may or may not reflect my actual personal positions--but at all times do reflect where they should be in a perfect world.

Index is one of the best and I think it's good for the board when your posting.

Swinger and IT - you guys are both great traders Please continue to post I've learned even from this discussion you've just had

thanks for the update swinger monk