Value Line Geometric High for Mid Oct.

I am reversing my previous forecast, for vix and nikkei, looks like everything will go up into Oct. maybe more for gasoline. Vix and Vxn are showing the same trends now, sometimes the oscillator produces two trends one high and one low for the same time period, it can be difficult to determine which is the correct one, I believe this chart is correct, any weakness in August should be bought. The odd man out is the dollar chart, it still looks like it is going to go up now, maybe its going to be a temporary rally, its signal is quite short which does not give it that much power. As far as spx etc. it is common for charts to shoot right back up those untested black bars from last autumn.

Edited by Russ, 27 July 2009 - 08:26 PM.

Russ, it just my model's guess that the rally will not last until October, the weakness in the USD will last until the end of September or perhaps until early October, but I do not think it will be all that market friendly beyond August. I think the rates are rallying much faster than USD and in fact the equity indices as well (edit: this time compared to March lows). The equity market will not support the rates and reverse the course, but I am afraid USD won't, meaning we will have some sort of a currency crisis in the next 6-8 wks such that the gains will be most likely be reversed with a mini-crash later in September... All the fun is still ahead...

Edited by arbman, 27 July 2009 - 09:20 PM.

Russ, it just my model's guess that the rally will not last until October, the weakness in the USD will last until the end of September or perhaps until early October, but I do not think it will be all that market friendly beyond August. I think the rates are rallying much faster than USD and in fact the equity indices as well (edit: this time compared to March lows). The equity market will not support the rates and reverse the course, but I am afraid USD won't, meaning we will have some sort of a currency crisis in the next 6-8 wks such that the gains will be most likely be reversed with a mini-crash later in September... All the fun is still ahead...

I saw an interesting interview with an analyst that someone posted in which he thought that as long as the bank to bank interest rates stay below the higher resistance point on the chart the market will keep going up, as it means that capital is freely circulating, when those rates start to break above resistance then things will get bad again. I am not a long term bull, I still think more trouble is coming.