Approaching IT top may resume the bear market...

I think we will still print above 1000 on SPX basis within the next 2-3 weeks or so, so this top won't happen before the middle of August. The USD is set to bottom around late August instead of September now, only if the markets turn down earlier though. I am afraid USD will not really recover ever out of this, you may have to alternate in between selling short the equity market and USD on the way down.

As the excitement among the participants returns to the markets, I tend to think that the gov't is running out of options. This is obviously a terrible combination. The second stimulus package for winter appears to be a bust, the government will not be able to fund anything without causing significant inflation from here either. The real estate will not turn back up, if the unemployment does not turn down rapidly from here. The Fed or the gov't cannot also bail out the banks again. There are hints of job recovery, but no indication of trend growth whatsoever...

The markets are still down some 50% and the USD is just where it was before the decline. Although the markets may still bounce around in winter after a decline into fall, I am afraid we are still headed into a inflationary depression later in 2010...

Best of luck!

1000 SPX has been as widely broadcast as the fake H+S was-I highly doubt we see it on the next small run up.

I think if the large brokers want to unload easily and position short better, that's the level which will create enough euphoria, especially for anyone to hold... But I agree for the next shot down probably in the next 1-2 days, it is unlikely to be seen, I expect to see it by the middle of August though before the final top. Of course if we sell off from here below 940s, then we may not see a new high either. The fact that we have not seen ANY sell off since July 8th tells me that we should have one more high and it should probably print above 1000... Some loud thinking... PS. btw I think the widely broadcast level is around the gap and in fact the 50% retracement should be around 1120 or so, a tad above the gap...

Edited by arbman, 29 July 2009 - 05:06 PM.