More Watching Than Acting

No arguing w/current action. NDX is and has been in a bull market. R2K now is (see 50wkema). SPX is very close as is OEX. I've thought the basic internals have been diverging bullishly for a couple weeks minimum. I paired back on longs yesterday just in time . I did a little bit of shorting in energy yesterday and I'm adding looking to add today perhaps at close or after the NG number. I do have longs in the sector and I don't like the major falloff in relative strength in the sector. Any market downside should be led by energy and perhaps other commodities on a correction. My energy shorts are 'arguing with market' but I do have longs in energy and other sectors. I expect the big entry in energy is coming this fall. The nature of the previous bear, low rates and liquidity are very favorable. I do think a correction is likely ahead but I'm not going to attempt to pick it. This action is bullish and wish I would have waited to sell some. Also, wanted to add that basic cycles I follow (KISS w/9 month and 4.5 month) show a cycle inversion here. I had late Jul OPEX to Aug OPEX as the area for a cycle low which likely means inversion or very abreviated downside. The next low is expected in Dec.

Edited by Cirrus, 30 July 2009 - 09:16 AM.

I like trading energy sector because it always rallies at the end, so even if I am not always smart enough to fully load up at the bottoms, I can almost always make it up by leveraging in the energy etfs after the initial impulse is over. I think the next significant pull back that didn't come so far will be one of those, the last major rally should be again led by the energy. I will position short for the broad market while cashing out of the options in the energy etfs...