melt up [2]

Not much pull back and another trend day... The melt up I was mentioning is happening. I guess the seasonal pattern is also helping out here until August 1st. Basically no need to sell short just because the market is up, but I should've been exposed in the long side more. Even though the speculation is now soaring, I tend to think it will go much higher into August after another pull back or consolidation next week... Interesting... Every pop in USD is being reflated... Fed wants USD to be strong so that they can inflate more!

Best of luck. [ref: 1, 2]

The A/D is not that strong for such an up day, I think the large caps are being pushed rather than the broad market and RUT is market performing, the tech stocks are lagging. So this rally appears selective and even engineered. The speculation is soaring, I will take a short position tomorrow for a swing lower next week, especially if the energy stocks lead tomorrow. It will be my first significant short position since July 8th. I don't think it is the end of the up trend by any means though...

Edited by arbman, 30 July 2009 - 12:40 PM.

I will take the swing short tomorrow since it is the last day of the month and I am willing to risk more on Monday, if the market rallies a bit more over 1000, quite likely. I am looking for a test of 950 level and then another rally into August for the final top... So, no change in my strategic thinking since the lows.

I think this is an exhaustion gap up and it will be filled next week, enough is enough, the bears deserve to make some money too!

Edited by arbman, 30 July 2009 - 01:41 PM.

I will take the swing short tomorrow since it is the last day of the month and I am willing to risk more on Monday, if the market rallies a bit more over 1000, quite likely. I am looking for a test of 950 level and then another rally into August for the final top... So, no change in my strategic thinking since the lows.

I still cannot get over the fact that the market seems to be following the post-presidential year cycle so closely. One could almost throw away entire systems and follow that silly little pattern. Looks like a top in August, chop and sell off into October, followed by another substantial rally?

The top will be in August, but I am looking for a top around the middle of August, perhaps a little later like your seasonal chart. We are roughly following the 2000-2004 bear market patterns. This is a summer rally within the bear market context. We are still following the 17-18 wk cycle, my work is old but still relevant...

[ref: 1, 2, 3]