MAJOR CYCLES TOPPING?

From my last post here (http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=111535&st=0&p=485059&#entry485059)
the larger combination wave with the 45, 90 and 180-day cycles was headed higher into late-September or into October, with the SPX so far hitting 1096 at the swing peak, with major resistance not much overhead at the 1100-1121 region for this index.

The outlook with the various stock indexes has them in what is currently looking to be an extended peak with the 45-day (10-week), 90-day (20-week), and 180-day (40-week) cycles.

The last 90-day (20-week) cycle bottom was made at the July lows, putting it at around 72 days along from the same. statistically, when this cycle has registered the pattern of a ‘higher-high’ in the past (as it has with the current phase), then the greater-majority have seen their tops made on or before the 75 trading day mark. Seventy-five trading days from the July low equates to approximately 10/21/09 - which is the upcoming trading week. Adding to this, there is an upcoming turn with the Bradley indicator , which is set for this same October 22nd time period (plus or minus).

In other words, the suggestions with time from the 90-day cycle are that we have either topped - or else are not that far away.

Once these larger cycles have topped, then the current assumption is that we will see the sharpest decline seen since going into the March, 2009 bottom.

In my last post here, I presented a 'combination' wave, which basically suggests how the action could end up playing out in the next 3-6 weeks on the SPX; here is the updated version of that same chart.


Jim Curry
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

Thanks for sharing - gis

Thanks for the note Jim.

From my last post here (http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=111535&st=0&p=485059&#entry485059)
the larger combination wave with the 45, 90 and 180-day cycles was headed higher into late-September or into October, with the SPX so far hitting 1096 at the swing peak, with major resistance not much overhead at the 1100-1121 region for this index.

The outlook with the various stock indexes has them in what is currently looking to be an extended peak with the 45-day (10-week), 90-day (20-week), and 180-day (40-week) cycles.

The last 90-day (20-week) cycle bottom was made at the July lows, putting it at around 72 days along from the same. statistically, when this cycle has registered the pattern of a ‘higher-high’ in the past (as it has with the current phase), then the greater-majority have seen their tops made on or before the 75 trading day mark. Seventy-five trading days from the July low equates to approximately 10/21/09 - which is the upcoming trading week. Adding to this, there is an upcoming turn with the Bradley indicator , which is set for this same October 22nd time period (plus or minus).

In other words, the suggestions with time from the 90-day cycle are that we have either topped - or else are not that far away.

Once these larger cycles have topped, then the current assumption is that we will see the sharpest decline seen since going into the March, 2009 bottom.

In my last post here, I presented a 'combination' wave, which basically suggests how the action could end up playing out in the next 3-6 weeks on the SPX; here is the updated version of that same chart.


Jim Curry
http://cyclewave.homestead.com/

Very much appreciate the post Jim.

I'm trying not to 'expect' weakness due to cycles as I am seeing the potential for a move down into Dec/Jan. I've learned not to do anything until price and then internals confirm. I remember late 2003 getting a cycle inversion. I was a subscriber to your work back then and if I'm remembering clearly we had a similar setup and got an inversion.

Anyhow, cycles can help but throught the years I've let cycle expectations bit me and will simply start with the basics which are price then internals. I'll then work outwards to semtiment and cycles.

It does seem that if we get going to the downside here there's potential for a nice move south. For now the market is in bull mode.

hi Jim,

Thanks for posting. I am a Hurst follower and I pretty much see a top forming as well, just not sure how long this will take. Here is a comment I made last night in Hurst speak.

http://investorshub....age_id=42642774

cheers,

john

hi Jim,

Thanks for posting. I am a Hurst follower and I pretty much see a top forming as well, just not sure how long this will take. Here is a comment I made last night in Hurst speak.

http://investorshub....age_id=42642774

cheers,

john

Adds perspective to my 2003 thesis...thanks. Cycles are an outstanding tool, IMO. Still...gotta wait for the market to tip its hand. Usually, it's internals first then price follows sometimes soon thereafter. Right now, the internals simply look too bullish and any "divergences" between internals and price have been bullish. Because of this I'm not giving any of my basic cyclical observations much weight....yet.

Everything starts with price in its proper perspective...

Edited by Cirrus, 19 October 2009 - 09:28 AM.

The cycle periods I am observing are slightly shorter than yours... [ref: 1]

But I agree, we are near a top that should last for a few weeks... (that I probably posted here a dozen times already)