1101 SPX?

The formula went to buy last night Asia as I thought may happen...did not bother to post and I did not leave it on to trade just run so not counting it either. It just went to cash again just now. On my other stuff still has the 1101 number sitting out there. Maybe today late or tomorrow a.m. Buck still has that 75.40 breach I mentioned the other day to go before I will trust it for a decent bounce. Today I am in till 4:15 due to where we are told everyone here cya.

The formula went to buy last night Asia as I thought may happen...did not bother to post and I did not leave it on to trade just run so not counting it either. It just went to cash again just now.

On my other stuff still has the 1101 number sitting out there. Maybe today late or tomorrow a.m.

Buck still has that 75.40 breach I mentioned the other day to go before I will trust it for a decent bounce.

Today I am in till 4:15 due to where we are told everyone here cya.

I don't know why you'd "trust" the dollar for a decent bounce at all. Government policy is weak dollar policy.

IT

My 2/15 min said long this morning, but because I had a bias (short) I got stopped out. A bias is no good thing in this fast market. That was one fast short squeeze. Whew!

IT, I do not think the govt will be able to handle the rising oil prices very well and neither the economy. We are due a pause, the natural gas is skyrocketing again too, but I do not think any of the rallies in equities or commodities are sustainable from here, we should give them back... I am adding to my short positions at these prices. My average price is for my short positions are around 1082 now for roughly 50-60% position on the discretionary portion of the portfolio (20%), which is small compared to the algorithmic portion. I still expect lower eventually till the end of the month or early November, I am holding the December contracts. I should be able to exit at least at break even given that my average is slightly above the Intel gap. I think Intel's gap will be filled before the next cycle low at a minimum. I still have plenty to fire if we do go higher toward 1120-1130 on this leg. If I we can get a retest of the 1040 gap, it should yield roughly 6-7% for the entire portfolio assuming that I will be able to keep the average above 1082 at least...

IT, I do not think the govt will be able to handle the rising oil prices very well and neither the economy. We are due a pause, the natural gas is skyrocketing again too, but I do not think any of the rallies in equities or commodities are sustainable from here, we should give them back...

I am adding to my short positions at these prices. My average price is for my short positions are around 1082 now for roughly 50-60% position on the discretionary portion of the portfolio (20%), which is small compared to the algorithmic portion. I still expect lower eventually till the end of the month or early November, I am holding the December contracts.

I should be able to exit at least at break even given that my average is slightly above the Intel gap. I think Intel's gap will be filled before the next cycle low at a minimum. I still have plenty to fire if we do go higher toward 1120-1130 on this leg. If I we can get a retest of the 1040 gap, it should yield roughly 6-7% for the entire portfolio assuming that I will be able to keep the average above 1082 at least...

I don't think the government will be able to handle the rising oil prices very well either. Nor any other commodity. Nor the dollar. They are all going to respond to cutting expenses in the government, higher taxes, lower deficits, higher interest rates. I don't expect any of those to happen. So while I think the dollar can bounce a few days, I think it will simply resolve lower.

Whether you are right on the stock markt, we'll see. I'm not short. I'm only playing the long side of the stock market, the long side of oil, and the long side of gold. I'm not playing the dollar. I have played the long side of the euro a few times, but I like gold better.

IT

Whether you are right on the stock markt, we'll see. I'm not short. I'm only playing the long side of the stock market, the long side of oil, and the long side of gold. I'm not playing the dollar. I have played the long side of the euro a few times, but I like gold better.

IT

Gold as a commodity should be supported by the breadth of the gold stocks and I am not really seeing that happening, the inflation fears are not really there, the rates are not really rallying up either. This is why the govt comfortably reflating away without the inflation concerns much, but I think it is getting there with the leading energy and material sector now. I guess the govt will continue to err on the side of inflation for a little further...

The breadth momentum on GDX...
(edit: sorry I fixed the link)

Edited by arbman, 19 October 2009 - 11:55 AM.

Whether you are right on the stock markt, we'll see. I'm not short. I'm only playing the long side of the stock market, the long side of oil, and the long side of gold. I'm not playing the dollar. I have played the long side of the euro a few times, but I like gold better.

IT

Gold as a commodity should be supported by the breadth of the gold stocks and I am not really seeing that happening, the inflation fears are not really there, the rates are not really rallying up either. This is why the govt comfortably reflating away without the inflation concerns much, but I think it is getting there with the leading energy and material sector now. I guess the govt will continue to err on the side of inflation for a little further...

The breadth momentum on GDX...

Link is bad...try this
http://www.etfinvest...vance_decline_d

Whether you are right on the stock markt, we'll see. I'm not short. I'm only playing the long side of the stock market, the long side of oil, and the long side of gold. I'm not playing the dollar. I have played the long side of the euro a few times, but I like gold better.

IT

Gold as a commodity should be supported by the breadth of the gold stocks and I am not really seeing that happening, the inflation fears are not really there, the rates are not really rallying up either. This is why the govt comfortably reflating away without the inflation concerns much, but I think it is getting there with the leading energy and material sector now. I guess the govt will continue to err on the side of inflation for a little further...

The breadth momentum on GDX...
(edit: sorry I fixed the link)

Admittedly some of the gold stocks aren't doing all that well. I own some NEM which is not performing all the well right now. However, my main position is gold futures, which are doing quite well. There may well be a reason that the gold futures trade better than the stocks....and that the stocks won't be predictive of the metal.

IT

Whether you are right on the stock markt, we'll see. I'm not short. I'm only playing the long side of the stock market, the long side of oil, and the long side of gold. I'm not playing the dollar. I have played the long side of the euro a few times, but I like gold better.

IT

Gold as a commodity should be supported by the breadth of the gold stocks and I am not really seeing that happening, the inflation fears are not really there, the rates are not really rallying up either. This is why the govt comfortably reflating away without the inflation concerns much, but I think it is getting there with the leading energy and material sector now. I guess the govt will continue to err on the side of inflation for a little further...

The breadth momentum on GDX...
(edit: sorry I fixed the link)

Admittedly some of the gold stocks aren't doing all that well. I own some NEM which is not performing all the well right now. However, my main position is gold futures, which are doing quite well. There may well be a reason that the gold futures trade better than the stocks....and that the stocks won't be predictive of the metal.

IT

The energy sector in equities is leading the crude oil though and the oil and gas commodities may have a lot more upside potential if the recovery continues, imho. So, we have been probably in a low inflation with all the deflationary background forces and mediocre growth driven by easy liquidity until now. The interest rates are also not moving up fast enough. Perhaps this is the Goldilocks once again, but I tend to think the critical element which is the energy and materials leadership in the equities, is going to sooner or later result in a pretty decent correction. We may have more upside toward 1200-1220 in winter thereafter, I am focusing on when the equities will break that leadership and I have already shown that we have entered to the zone... [ref: 1]

Edited by arbman, 19 October 2009 - 12:27 PM.

Sell hour and day 1096.50 Dec ES next number after the 1101 was 1103 on target line-up btw