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the "big" move still waiting...


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#1 tommyt

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 05:35 PM

yes, still a huge unreal bull run...makes sense to have a final blowoff, but does it happen here? as M Osc still having small changes = summation sideways:

#1

#2 IYB

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 06:26 PM

yes, still a huge unreal bull run...makes sense to have a final blowoff, but does it happen here? as M Osc still having small changes = summation sideways:

#1

McSum changed directions 4 times in 5 days- close to a record, I'd bet, as are 11 consecutive down days on VIX and CPCE and ISEE readings of late. Incredible complacency. But a blow-off still cannot be eliminated as a possibility....
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#3 Mark4124

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 06:43 PM

I've been with you guys on this bearishness, but now it seems foolish, how much money could have been made had we just been bullish these last few weeks.... and earnings are coming in very strong. Unemployment is a huge problem, loan losses are still amassing at the banks, but it doesn't seem to matter for broader corporate America.

#4 andiron

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 06:54 PM

There should be a short term sell off ....That will be another opportunity to buy the dip
Buy the dip till you hear from the fed...

I've been with you guys on this bearishness, but now it seems foolish, how much money could have been made had we just been bullish these last few weeks.... and earnings are coming in very strong. Unemployment is a huge problem, loan losses are still amassing at the banks, but it doesn't seem to matter for broader corporate America.



#5 dasein

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 07:47 PM

agree with both sides but right now - AAPL beat and is up over 6% in AH. nd is up 18 or so, but the spx hasnt really moved - aapl is a component. where is the next good news coming from?
best,
klh

#6 porsche911sg

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 08:05 PM

We are likely to have a blow off to the down side, no more good news to boost things. Mark, to make the big money patient is what you need...
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#7 goldswinger

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 08:25 PM

We are likely to have a blow off to the down side, no more good news to boost things.

Mark, to make the big money patient is what you need...



Porsche, Apple is a one off, if it was CISCO or HP, yes it would move the SPX. Apple is completing a 5th wave when I look at its chart for the last 30 days, it will go down after it tops , probably Tomorrow after this exhaustion move.

http://stockcharts.c...&...8&listNum=1

GS.

#8 porsche911sg

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 08:33 PM

We are likely to have a blow off to the down side, no more good news to boost things.

Mark, to make the big money patient is what you need...



Porsche, Apple is a one off, if it was CISCO or HP, yes it would move the SPX. Apple is completing a 5th wave when I look at its chart for the last 30 days, it will go down after it tops , probably Tomorrow after this exhaustion move.

http://stockcharts.c...&...8&listNum=1

GS.

GS,

I agree with that, I counted, I think almost all indices are completing a 5th wave. It's 5 of 5 th count. a potential for a big down move.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#9 cycletimer

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 08:52 PM

yes, still a huge unreal bull run...makes sense to have a final blowoff, but does it happen here? as M Osc still having small changes = summation sideways:

#1

McSum changed directions 4 times in 5 days- close to a record, I'd bet, as are 11 consecutive down days on VIX and CPCE and ISEE readings of late. Incredible complacency. But a blow-off still cannot be eliminated as a possibility....



I agree. I expected market to start the drop today but all cycle turns are + or - a day or two so I do believe the drop begins tomorrow.... I am starting to see aggravation in Bears... they are frustrated, covering shorts and running for cover. I admit I am now 100% short but just when I get the feeling in my gut to blow out of my losing shorts, just as I am at the point of giving up... the market reverses to the downside. That is what attempting to catch a top feels like. I believe we are at that juncture again.... I may written off as a fool after this posting but I am sticking my neck out on the line and believe this is it.....

#10 IYB

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Posted 19 October 2009 - 08:54 PM

We are likely to have a blow off to the down side, no more good news to boost things.

Mark, to make the big money patient is what you need...

I absolutely agree 911. When the music stops, the downside will be relentless. Traders will keep trying to "buy the dip" but the snapbacks just won't come. Been there many times before. But the problem each time has been to figure out which note is the last note.... ;)
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds