SPX

The trend is up. Even the stray dogs in my neighborhood knows that. Momentum based timing models are not perfect. After i came back from my vacation, i said there's 3-4 days of momo left in the market. My momentum model expired today or at the latest will expire tommorow. While the momentum model has still not expired, i got two false sell signals on the hourly. The last few months have been, by far, the worst short side performance of my system in a while. The short signals have had less than 50% efficacy, which is worse than a coin toss. After a period of horrific performance of the signals, comes the best signals. So i keep probing. My next technical event of interest is what hapens after the next hourly sell signal. If we are going to witness a trend change here, something which seems impossible at this point needs to happen. We should go and break the 1019 swing low before we turn up from the next hourly oversold condition. I have no idea whether that will happen or not. But that is something i will be watching with interest. I am still short from 1085. Will add more if we get to 1105 area tommorow. I will decide on a stop or exit after that.

Edited by NAV, 20 October 2009 - 12:49 AM.

The trend is up. Even the stray dogs in my neighborhood knows that.

Momentum based timing models are not perfect. After i came back from my vacation, i said there's 3-4 days of momo left in the market. My momentum model expired today or at the latest will expire tommorow. While the momentum model has still not expired, i got two false sell signals on the hourly. The last few months have been, by far, the worst short side performance of my system in a while. The short signals have had less than 50% efficacy, which is worse than a coin toss. After a period of horrific performance of the signals, comes the best signals. So i keep probing.

My next technical event of interest is what hapens after the next hourly sell signal. If we are going to witness a trend change here, something which seems impossible at this point needs to happen. We should go and break the 1019 swing low before we turn up from the next hourly oversold condition. I have no idea whether that will happen or not. But that is something i will be watching with interest.

I am still short from 1085. Will add more if we get to 1105 area tommorow. I will decide on a stop or exit after that.

If everyone else thinks it's up the trend is just about to turn. That's just my take.

100% short as of the open...up from 30%. stop ES 1110. Aapl and Cat blew away earnings and NYSE has 1000 net declines already.

Edited by tommyt, 20 October 2009 - 08:46 AM.

I also recall that OEX Put/Call yesterday was 1.84.... Since it is over 1.5 and we are ST overbought it constitutes a short term sell in my book.... McClellan Summation is my only sell currently in the trend indicators.. This is enough to keep me trying shorts..... I did get a sell signal last night..... I got one 5 trading sessions also, barely ( that was a false one ). This one is a TAD stronger let see what happens.... Barry

100% short as of the open...up from 30%. stop ES 1110. Aapl and Cat blew away earnings and NYSE has 1000 net declines already.

Financials not reacting either, they may bounce a bit but not to new highs....

GS.

Buckle up. This move will be quick from here. Down into 40 week cycle lows. cheers, john

Dip buying is relentless. How are equities going to make a 40 week low? The current cycle is 34 weeks along. the 20 week cycle is 15 weeks along. Extreme right translation. cheers, john

Dip buying is relentless. How are equities going to make a 40 week low? The current cycle is 34 weeks along. the 20 week cycle is 15 weeks along. Extreme right translation.

cheers,

john

"When time 's up, price will reverse", who said that?

It will be a rapid decline, the rush for the exits will be something to watch.

GS.

There is a tipping point. I think it has been reached. Major reversals in currencies, PMs, etc. Down into 40 week lows from here. And yet no one seems to be buying puts yet. Vol is still way down. cheers, john P.S. Everyone was just waiting to get AAPL earnings out of the way.

Edited by SilentOne, 20 October 2009 - 10:42 AM.

An abrupt expansion of volatility is what I'm playing...