The fly in the ointment...

The technicals were great for a selloff today. But i had a bad feeling in my stomach when so many on TT acknowledged the setup for the selloff all at the same time. The technicals have not changed. But if this spike helps to induce some fear in the bears, then we could see a sharp selloff locking the weak bears out. If the bearish sentiment remains cocky, then there could be in for more painful squeeze. Still short. Looking to add if we tag SPX 1005.

I don't know why.... but a sharper the sell off the more painful the squeeze... this experience has came over many years and rally.

I don't know why.... but a sharper the sell off the more painful the squeeze... this experience has came over many years and rally.

Without a sharp persistent selloff, you ain't gonna scare the dip buyers. With the dip buyers around, you ain't gonna break the prior swing lows. Without breaking the swing lows, you ain't gonna break the trend. So goes the fairy tale....

With the Euro over $1.50, a new high in the $SPX today and commodities firm, I can't see taking short positions unless it is for a daytrade technical bounce as an entry point. Yesterday was a likely 2.5 week Hurst cycle low, so if things rollover, we have to take out 1080 /ES for a decent downside move (into a 40 week low). The weak USD creates a bubble under everything and for now there is no point in fighting it until that trend changes. I've had this nagging feeling that if we can not go down this week, then Mark's timing projector may have validity. This is a USD driven squeeze higher in everything. I won't be fighting it if it continues much longer. I will say this, once it ends, it won't be pretty. The setups in some markets are not much different than $150 oil last summer. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 21 October 2009 - 11:00 AM.

I don't know why.... but a sharper the sell off the more painful the squeeze... this experience has came over many years and rally.

RIGHT, It is going down as I type but it 's fake, it will be up to new highs soon, the dollar's not done to the down side, it's gettig really tiring....but that's it. Many bears have already capitulated, that's a good sign.....I got stopped out at break even on my last short trade Yesterday, keeping my powder dry on that one. I ''ll wait for the next bounce and subsequent rollover.....

GS.

I don't know why.... but a sharper the sell off the more painful the squeeze... this experience has came over many years and rally.

Without a sharp persistent selloff, you ain't gonna scare the dip buyers. With the dip buyers around, you ain't gonna break the prior swing lows. Without breaking the swing lows, you ain't gonna break the trend. So goes the fairy tale....

I am sure you remember the 2007 oct squeeze.... till it suddenly plunge... almost no correction can i say parabolic rally... I got sueeze out of spx by 30 points refused to bail out but added positions sounded really crazy.

With the Euro over $1.50, a new high in the $SPX today and commodities firm, I can't see taking short positions unless it is for a daytrade technical bounce as an entry point. Yesterday was a likely 2.5 week Hurst cycle low, so if things rollover, we have to take out 1080 /ES for a decent downside move (into a 40 week low). The weak USD creates a bubble under everything and for now there is no point in fighting it until that trend changes.

I've had this nagging feeling that if we can not go down this week, then Mark's timing projector may have validity. This is a USD driven squeeze higher in everything. I won't be fighting it if it continues much longer.

I will say this, once it ends, it won't be pretty. The setups in some markets are not much different than $150 oil last summer.

cheers,

john

You are absolutely right with the OIL $150 analogy.

We will get a sharp correction in the next 2 weeks... I think the market looks like ********, especially if it goes any higher. We have a huge internal sector divergence, the breadth is also another problem, none of these sharp rallies look like an initiation anymore...

1105? All I want is 1104. Please, please, please.

Looking to add if we tag SPX 1005.

But i had a bad feeling in my stomach when so many on TT acknowledged the setup for the sell off all at the same time.

Knowing you for as long as I do, I'm quite surprised that this statement is coming from you.

The technicals have not changed.

Nope...they haven't.

Fib