USD

Today it's the first time in a while that USD was down big and SPX also went down:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...id=p78104933373

When their "normal" inverse relationship is broken, stock market is likely at a top place. Just another view apart from the RF2 SELL signal which went off three days ago.

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 October 2009 - 08:12 PM.

I'm thinking we hit some sort of stock market top based on host of indicators I use.. breadth, sentiment, etc. However, I am deathly scared of the parabolic nature of the inverse USD (UDN, for example). The correlation to many parabolic models I have with it is too perfect. I am not sure what I want to do here. Everything from stock trading tells me to short, but this USD move is scaring the crap out of me and may end up wagging the tail. My suspicions about the USD may shed some light tomorrow. If the dollar breaks above the wedge into parabolic, it will start to accelerate. I am not sure how stocks will react to that. But I am willing to sit and watch what happens here.

To break this "normal" relationship I believe it's a job of big, big hands.

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 October 2009 - 08:23 PM.

Today it's the first time in a while that USD was down big and SPX also went down:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD...id=p78104933373

When their "normal" inverse relationship is broken, stock market is likely at a top place. Just another view apart from the RF2 SELL signal which went off three days ago.

Ah ha.... remember i was suspecting the broken relationship? I was probably too advanced. It did break a couple of times. Yes we got the same idea!

For the past few days, they jacked up futures over night and ramped indices up in the morning. Then distributions took place at highs after noon time. It's a planned unloading by big boys. However, after this tricky performance for a few days, retails won't buy in the morning. So, tomorrow we may gap down......

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 October 2009 - 08:36 PM.

For the past few days, they jacked up futures over night and ramped indices up in the morning. Then distributions took place at highs after noon time. It's an organized retrieve from big boys. However, after this tricky performance for a few days, retails won't buy in the morning. So, tomorrow we may gap down......

I think the retails are still going in.... It's stupidity once bitten never shy.

I think the retails are still going in.... It's stupidity once bitten never shy. [/quote] They should have learnt during these few days. Three days ago when the SELL signal went off I said that the SELL signal was at its early stage. After 3-day struggle now we are entering the serious part of it. I had a downside target at SPX 1048. But whether or not it will come back up from there, i.e. whether this ST SELL evolves into IT SELL, I don't know, just have to play it by ears.

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 October 2009 - 08:47 PM.

I'm thinking we hit some sort of stock market top based on host of indicators I use.. breadth, sentiment, etc.

However, I am deathly scared of the parabolic nature of the inverse USD (UDN, for example). The correlation to many parabolic models I have with it is too perfect.

I am not sure what I want to do here. Everything from stock trading tells me to short, but this USD move is scaring the crap out of me and may end up wagging the tail.

My suspicions about the USD may shed some light tomorrow. If the dollar breaks above the wedge into parabolic, it will start to accelerate. I am not sure how stocks will react to that.

But I am willing to sit and watch what happens here.

Long gold (or oil). Short SnP.

I'm thinking we hit some sort of stock market top based on host of indicators I use.. breadth, sentiment, etc.

However, I am deathly scared of the parabolic nature of the inverse USD (UDN, for example). The correlation to many parabolic models I have with it is too perfect.

I am not sure what I want to do here. Everything from stock trading tells me to short, but this USD move is scaring the crap out of me and may end up wagging the tail.

My suspicions about the USD may shed some light tomorrow. If the dollar breaks above the wedge into parabolic, it will start to accelerate. I am not sure how stocks will react to that.

But I am willing to sit and watch what happens here.

Long gold (or oil). Short SnP.

I think central banks are targeting oil prices..............

I'm thinking we hit some sort of stock market top based on host of indicators I use.. breadth, sentiment, etc.

However, I am deathly scared of the parabolic nature of the inverse USD (UDN, for example). The correlation to many parabolic models I have with it is too perfect.

I am not sure what I want to do here. Everything from stock trading tells me to short, but this USD move is scaring the crap out of me and may end up wagging the tail.

My suspicions about the USD may shed some light tomorrow. If the dollar breaks above the wedge into parabolic, it will start to accelerate. I am not sure how stocks will react to that.

But I am willing to sit and watch what happens here.

Long gold (or oil). Short SnP.

Yeah I considered that. But I might as well be shorting Nas, long S&P then. I want to know if USD goes into freefall.. my suspicion is it will be celebrated by stocks at first, then it will scare it down.. but I want to see it accelerate first to confirm my suspicion.